Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

Wonderous Wednesday - APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

Wed, 11 Sep 2019

O/N, Levels & thoughts:

Obsession overnight focused on the resignation / firing of John Bolton, who was the National Security Advisor to Trump, with very hard lined views on America First vs the rest of the world – i.e. not exactly Mr. Globalization & very much the Hawk on countries like Iran

The bulls, can read this as being positive, as there is one less person in the White House who is there to curb globalization. The bears, will be like, whats new, this is classic Trump… there is only one T in team, & that’s Trump himself… he does not listen to anyone

What can be likely concluded with a high degree of certainty is that the views & discussion within the White House ex. Trump, are likely to be smoother & more solution oriented without Bolton. We are not talking day & night necessarily here, yet it is a relative world

Still we have to wait & see who the fourth National Security Advisor will be. At this point even KVP is will to step fwd…   

Last critical very important piece, is we keep seeing very key structural initiatives by China in regards to opening up its markets – it seems to get lost in the Trade Wars noise & everything else going on

Yet China has now dropped the need for approval on on purchase quotas for foreigners look buy stocks & bonds.
Whilst one could argue that current facilities were not exactly being tapped fully (c. about a third of the max was being utilised),
its still one less potential restriction that was there… it’s the theme that is in play, similar to the new initiatives of loans to SMEs… to move them from fixed to be more aligned with floating SHIBOR from a few wks back

USTs at 1.74% as the rapid correction from recent 1.42/43 lows continues, its worth also noting that 2/10 curve has been steepening & we are c. +4/5bp, from Aug inversion lvls of -6/7bp

On the back of yields rising, we’ve gotten our first decent correction in gold & silver which are down c. -4.2% & -8% over the last 5 trading days (talking spot here & not futures contracts)


  • NZ Visitor arrivals m/m ticked up to +1.3%a vs. -0.1%p
  • CA: Capacity Utilization Rate 82.0%e 80.9%p
  • US: PPI, Wholesale Inventories & Crude Oil Inventories, 10yr bond auction


We get the long anticipated ECB decision tmr (Thu Sep 12) – which we covered quite a bit on our Macro Monday piece from earlier in the wk – The not so Super Mario Draghi?

Risk continues to be to the upside on Euro crosses, with that said its worth noting that bund yields have had a big move from their lows of -74bp to current -55bp lvl.

Whereas EURUSD has gone from 1.0926 (Sep 3) to current 1.1049. Feels like EURUSD should have had a bigger pop higher by now – perhaps there is more to come. Obvious floor is the 1.0926 / 1.0900 lvls, with the resistance to the upside being current 1.1050 lvls & then 1.1200

More importantly all about the Fed on Sep 18, interesting to see the correction in yields finally coming through. Why now? Again impossible to say…

KVP thought the move from 2.50% to 2.00% would see a major correction, never happened…

Still his conviction on core long-term structural longs in duration, gold, silver & yen strength know no bounds. The fact that volatility is low (VIX at 15.20 dwn c. -23% over last 5 trading days), also allows potentially long-dated option expressions of those views

Meanwhile the WeWorks fiasco continues… its looks like a lot of Hedge Funds, Traders & Investors may not get their opportunity to short the living daylights on their potential IPO

A few folks are predicting it will be pulled… two further pieces by Galloway are here & here - the whole thing is really quite extraordinary…  WeWorks' founder has sold out of c. $700m!

Its like UBER * Infinity! Its going to be a Harvard Case Study… & that’s as close to a 100 delta as one can get


Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

2024: The wasted year

01 / 07

  • Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article
  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article
  • FX: High yielding currencies will start losing their appeal

    Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Year of the metals

    Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.

    Read article
  • Macro: What happened to the future?

    The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.