pound sterling pound sterling pound sterling

BoE Call: Looking for QE increase of £150bn and overall ultra-accommodative message

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  We are onside with consensus in expecting a significant increase in the BoE's QE to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic and Brexit uncertainty. Our baseline scenario is an increase of GBP 150bn which would push the total stimulus package to about GBP 795bn. The overaching message should remain ultra-accommodative with potential reference to negative rates if conditions require further support.

BoE Preview : Following the unprecedented 20.4% contraction in GDP in April and downside risks weighting on the economy due to the pandemic and Brexit uncertainty, the Bank of England is likely to unleash more firepower to support the economy on Thursday. QE increase was already on the table at the latest MPC meeting with two members – J. Haskel and M. Saunders – voting in favor of an increase of £100bn. Since the beginning of the crisis, the Bank of England’s strategy consists in absorbing more public debt than the Treasury is selling in order to allow the private sector to reduce its holdings of gilts. If it wants to continue this strategy and sustain the current pace of gilt purchases, we estimate that the central bank will need to increase the QE package by £150bn this week. The new stimulus would last at least until September or even November in case  the Bank of England decides to slow purchases if market conditions improve significantly. 

Market focus will be on what policymakers have to say about negative rates. In one of its latest speech, the governor Andrew Bailey has not ruled out this policy. In our view, it is however unlikely to materialize any time soon due to the detrimental impact of negative rates on banks and lenders’ margins. Implementing them now would be the worst time ever for the banking and financial sector which faces already a very challenging period due to Brexit uncertainty and the threat of bad loans. 

We think a more promising policy response would be to implement yield curve control, as was done by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve (from 1942 to 1951). Along with a clear and well-crafted communication strategy, the Bank of England could avoid interest rates from increasing too much when the recovery will start to materialize. It would allow the government to keep borrowing at low cost on the market as much as necessary to boost aggregate demand. The easiest strategy consists in keeping the 10-year yields within a certain range, let’s say between 0% and 0.10%, but other options exist such as targeting interest rates only in the short portion of the yield curve (e.g. up to two years) or beginning at the short end of the yield curve and moving out in steps as needed. 

Rate expectations : Unchanged at 0.1% - the lowest historical level.

Possible QE tweak expectations : QE increase of £150bn – total stimulus package expected to reach £795bn.

Latest BoE projections:

·       GDP : -25% (Q2 2020), -14% (2020), +15% (2021).

·       UK GDP is expected to recover its pre-COVID peak in the second half of next year.

·       Unemployment: 9% (Q2 2020).

·       Inflation: 0,6% (2020), 0,5% (2021).

OCDE projections:

·       2020 GDP: -11,5% (single pandemic peak), -14% (second pandemic peak).

·       2021 GDP: +9%.

IMF projections:

·       2020 GDP: -6.5%.

·       2021 GDP: +4%.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.