Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 10 year Treasury Note Future has bounced off from strong support at $121. A bounce to $124 is not unlikely. Trend would still be down and selling pressure could resume.
Bigger picture on monthly the Treasury futures has unfolded a big Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern reaching 100% of the Neckline to Head distance (illustrated by two blue arrows) AND tested the longer term rising trend line. If the T-Note future breaks below 121 there are no strong support before 117
Euro Bund future is testing lows at €156.22. A price level not seen since 2018. If closing below €156 Euro Bund future is likely to drop down to around €150 possibly lower.
RSI is below 40 threshold for the first time since 2008! Still have one more day of March to move back up above but it is not very likely that scenario will unfold. Euro Bund future is in negative sentiment and is likely to drop further.
However, corrections will occur obviously, and a correction from current level should be expected. A correction of 0.382 Fibonacci at around €162 is not unlikely.
UK Gilt testing key support at £119.60. RSI divergence on Weekly indicates we could see a (minor) correction from here, possibly up to around 125.
The support level at around 119.60 is fairly strong as illustrated on the Monthly chart. The 200 monthly SMA is offering support. However, monthly RSI is below 40 and has been for a couple of months by now with no divergence indicating we could lower levels in coming months. .
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.