Technical Update - EURUSD & Dollar Index. GBPUSD & EURGBP Technical Update - EURUSD & Dollar Index. GBPUSD & EURGBP Technical Update - EURUSD & Dollar Index. GBPUSD & EURGBP

Technical Update - EURUSD & Dollar Index. GBPUSD & EURGBP

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD and the Dollar Index still in correction phase. Could continue to 1.10 and 101.73 respectively.
GBPUSD correction likely to be done at 1.28 and uptrend set to resume
EURGBP failed to confirm Double Bottom pattern and downtrend is resuming


EURUSD correction is still ongoing and has potential to continue to the 0.618 retracement at 1.10 before uptrend likely resumes.

However, EURUSD could spike down to test the lower rising trend line and the 0.786 retracement at 1.0928 without cancelling the uptrend – both short- and medium-term. A close below 1.0830 would do that.

So unless EURUSD is closing below 1.0830 it still has medium-term potential to 1.1485

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Dollar Index correction has taken it back above the resistnace level at 100.68. However, contrary to previously where that level was a strong support it now doesn’t seem to be a strong resistance and not a key Bull/Bear pivot level.

The Dollar Index can perform a correction to the 0.6518 retracement at 101.73 without jeopardizing the overall downtrend. A close above 103.30 is needed for the bearish picture to be demolished

The Dollar Index still has downside potential to 98.60-97.45

GBPUSD Correction in GBPUSD could be done after touching the 0.618 retracement at 1.28.

A rebound and uptrend resuming is likely as the medium-term uptrend is intact and RSI still positive with no divergence.
However, if GBPUSD breaks below 1.2795 it could dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 1.2708 testing the lower rising trendline in the process. That will not demolish the bullish picture. A close below 1.2590 will.

Medium-term trend is still bullish supported by RSI (weekly chart). There should be room up to the 0.786 retracement at 1.3012 and resistance area around 1.3025. The Bullish scenario is supported by positive RSI with no divergence.

A break above could take GBPUSD back to levels not seen since Q1/Q2 2022 just prior to the massive sell-off around 1.3745.  

A close below 1.2590 will demolish the bullish picture and a downtrend is likely to unfold

EURGBP has failed to close above 0.8660 thus failing to confirm the Double bottom reversal pattern.
Down trend seems to be resuming with a possible drop to previous lows at around 0.85 to follow.

However, EURGBP can still unfold and confirm a Double bottom pattern , it just needs to close above 0.8660

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.