Quarterly Outlook
Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Strap yourself in for key market questions that must be answered in 2026.
NY Open: May Day for dissidents?
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: UK Prime Minister Theresa May could have the last laugh of the day after all with oddsmakers placing her chances of overcoming this evening's Conservative Party confidence vote at 86%.
May is still five months away, but disgruntled UK Conservative MPs may be soon shouting “May Day, May Day.” They forced a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Theresa May and will quickly find out that their colleagues have no confidence in them. A Reuters article claimed that UK bookmakers suggest an 86% probability that May wins the vote. Sterling traders voted with their wallets. GBPUSD has risen from 1.2537 at the New York open to 1.2640 as of 14:00 GMT. However, GBPUSD needs to break above 1.2760 to negate the downward pressure.
The GBPUSD rally helped to turn the fortunes around for other beleaguered G10 major currencies. EURUSD climbed alongside Cable, rising from 1.1334 to 1.1364 in a move aided by soft, but as expected US November inflation data. (CPI actual 0.0% versus October's 0.3%, m/m). It has not, however, recouped losses from yesterday’s open. Traders are also trimming positions in case Mario Draghi chirps a tad hawkishly at tomorrow’s post-ECB press conference.
The Australian and Canadian dollars have scraped out gains since yesterday and added to them in New York trading. Both currencies are deriving support from a modestly better tone to the China/US trade talks. USDCAD was undermined by the pop in WTI oil prices overnight. However, they have since retreated, which may limit USDCAD losses.
Once again, Wall Street opened with a “pop.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.73% as of 1415 GMT. The S&P 500 jumped 1.41%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.73%. Traders are hoping that this move has legs as morning gains have not been there at the closing bell. So far, traders are ignoring the threat of a US government shutdown.
The GBPUSD rally helped to turn the fortunes around for other beleaguered G10 major currencies. EURUSD climbed alongside Cable, rising from 1.1334 to 1.1364 in a move aided by soft, but as expected US November inflation data. (CPI actual 0.0% versus October's 0.3%, m/m). It has not, however, recouped losses from yesterday’s open. Traders are also trimming positions in case Mario Draghi chirps a tad hawkishly at tomorrow’s post-ECB press conference.
The Australian and Canadian dollars have scraped out gains since yesterday and added to them in New York trading. Both currencies are deriving support from a modestly better tone to the China/US trade talks. USDCAD was undermined by the pop in WTI oil prices overnight. However, they have since retreated, which may limit USDCAD losses.
Once again, Wall Street opened with a “pop.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.73% as of 1415 GMT. The S&P 500 jumped 1.41%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.73%. Traders are hoping that this move has legs as morning gains have not been there at the closing bell. So far, traders are ignoring the threat of a US government shutdown.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
2026 is a high-valuation, high-dispersion year: the AI story matures, policy becomes less predictabl... -
Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Disclaimer