The G-10 rundown
USD – looking generally firm, but not the centre of attention at present. As long as US stimulus fears weigh on risk sentiment, likely to continue to see resilience.
EUR – considerable speculation around the ECB’s next measures, but the ECB is already doing plenty if we have a look at EU peripheral spreads, and the focus is likely to increasingly shift to the fiscal – watching for signals from the EU Summit today and tomorrow on that front.
JPY – very interested in the relative horse race of the USD and JPY as 105.00 and below approaches to see which achieves top status as a safe haven currency if yields continue lower and risk sentiment is rocky.
GBP – potential for further gains here, but still need the key breakthrough and wonder if the ceiling is a bit low for sterling even in the best of outcomes – more thoughts later now that talks likely to drag on for two more weeks or more.
CHF – a grinding bit here in CHF as EURCHF slowly moves lower – maybe more sensitive to global bond safe-haven seeking that risk sentiment swings per se?
AUD – Australia hit by the RBA and could trade on weak side until the November 3 RBA meeting, especially if global outlook remains further clouded by Covid-19 concerns and China’s yuan suffers a bout of consolidation after its recent run.
CAD – USDCAD has room to consolidated to 1.3250 without raising eyebrows, but seems low beta to the overall USD situation. CAD traders need keep an eye on oil prices as these traded near resistance yesterday.
NZD – the kiwi enjoying strength against the sudden downshift in the Aussie, but the RBNZ will be quick to take care of preventing pronounced NZD strength eventually. For relative strength in that pair, watching the 200-day moving average around 1.0620. Big level for NZDUSD is 0.6500.
SEK – the krona may be overachieve in short term, but still have a “fade the rallies” stance in EURSEK as long as we remain south of 10.500 for a move into sub-10.00 territory in 2021.
NOK – the EURNOK level of 10.75-80 is the one to crack tactically for NOK bulls – could be a short term walk in the desert here for those bulls if the Covid-19 partial shutdowns continue to weigh on the oil outlook over the winter.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 0950 – Hungary Rate Announcement
- 1230 – US Oct. Empire Manufacturing
- 1230 – US Weekly Initial- and Continuing Jobless Claims
- 1230 – US Philadelphia Fed Survey
- 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to Speak
- 1500 – US Fed’s Quarles (FOMC Voter) to Speak
- 1600 – ECB President Lagarde to Speak
- 2100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (FOMC Voter) to Speak on Economic Outlook