Today’s G-10 rundown
USD – the greenback underperforming within the G3 as stock markets go into utter meltdown mode sends a loud signal that the highs may be in for the greenback versus the EUR and JPY. Watching Trump for signs that he is set to go to war against the strong US dollar.
EUR – Our EURUSD long-term upside view gaining encouragement from the local price action here, with the key point of interest how the pair behaves if and when equity market downside action slows and reverses eventually. Trump moving against the USD is a potential (and increasingly likely) tailwind for EURUSD bulls. Still, first real step for a technical reversal is a significant rally back through 1.1000+.
JPY – as we note in the chart above, the yen showing all signs of reverting to its historic role as the highest beta currency in negative correlation with risk appetite, but still looks a bit out of whack with historic sensitivity to gyrations in risky assets.
GBP – sterling backing away as the speculative market is long the pound here and large moves in risky assets could see a bit of general position squaring, leaving sterling to languish a bit here or worse.
CHF – interesting to watch CHFJPY for which currency gets the upper hand if this environment continues.
AUD – the Aussie pushing to new lows overnight as we are headed for a recession Down Under – positioning a large risk for a sharp back-up in AUD pairs once some headline manages to spark a sentiment shift.
CAD – USDCAD sideways despite unfriendly drop below 50 for the WTI crude benchmark and ugly risk off – conviction in CAD shorts declining if we don’t see downside traction posthaste.
NZD – NZDUSD pushes close to new local lows, still ab ti clear of the cycle lows from last fall – little differentiation from the market between NZD and AUD, though the former has more cutting potential.
SEK – EURSEK hanging in there below the upside pivot zone of 10.60-65, a fairly strong performance from SEK, really – but the backdrop is SEK-hostile (global growth concerns, risk off).
NOK – the NOK getting the worst of it from risk off and very weak crude oil since yesterday, and EURNOK in danger of new all time highs above 10.30 as long as this continues.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1100 – ECB’s Makhlouf to Speak
- 1330 – ECB’s Lagarde to Speak
- 1500 – US Jan. New Home Sales
- 1530 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil Inventories
- 2145 – New Zealand Jan. Trade Balance
- 0000 – New Zealand Feb. ANZ Survey