FX Breakout Monitor: Strong JPY and EUR, weak EM

Forex 4 minutes to read

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The yen, and to a degree the euro, continue to trade on the strong side, with USDJPY and other JPY crosses poking around at breakout levels to the downside again today. A shift back to a negative tone also has a number of EM currencies on the defensive and gold is pushing the upside of the envelope as well. General market energy levels are increasing markedly.


Today’s Breakout monitor

The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.

A PDF of today’s Breakout Monitor

Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. We employ a 50-day EMA for measuring the ATR and the market energy is showing far more determined signs of picking up here – with the top half showing fewer “deep blue/low ATR” readings and the bottom half beginning to show the serious pick up in trading ranges.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

In fitting with the tilt back lower into a weak risk sentiment regime today (every day seems to bring a change of direction on that front), the USDJPY pair is poking at the cycle lows, just as EURUSD is mulling the 1.1200 level, while several USD/EM pairs are gunning higher and gold is trading just below its highest daily close for the cycle as of this writing..

Today’s Breakout Highlight: EURUSD
EURUSD is poised at a major level here around 1.1200, a resistance  area that held on several prior occasions and deserves watching as a bull/bear pivot level now that the price action has neutralized the recent run to the lows of the cycle in short order. The next area opened up to the upside stretches toward 1.1400 on a solid break.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: Rooms 2001-02, 20/F York House, The Landmark, 15 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.