COT: Euro selling drives dollar long to new 2020 high
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Continued dollar strength helped support a fourth consecutive week of speculative buying against major currencies such as CAD, JPY and not least the euro.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Continued dollar strength in the week to February 11 helped lift bullish bets to a new high for the year. As buying of the Greenback extended into a fourth week the long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index rose by $2 billion to $11.7 billion. Still well below the 2019 peak at $38 billion, reached last April when the Dollar Index traded lower at 97.5.
The selling was once again led by the euro and the 1.1% sell-off during the reporting week helped drive a 10.5k lots increase in the net-short position to 86k lots, the equivalent of €10.7 billion. One of the few exceptions were the Australian Dollar, which despite trading lower on the week, managed to attract short covering in response to higher commodity prices.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.
In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.
In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.
Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.
They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.