Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Quantitative Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold miner stocks were boosted last week by a lower-than-expected inflation print, and the theme was on top in our weekly thematic screener when looking at the relative trading activity.
In our weekly publication series we monitor trends in a pool of more than 40 ETF equity themes. Every week we focus on one themes which have moved the most in the previous week relative to its usual trading pattern and volatility, and we provide an unbiased sample of companies within the theme. This week we describe the theme which has gained the most interest, measured by last week’s trading volume relative to the usual trading volume.
A slightly softer than expected US CPI number for October last week seemed to convince investors that inflation is slowly slowing down in the US. The subsequent drop in the yields and the dollar gave gold and other metals a major boost last week, and this of course also had an impact on those involved in gold mining.
The list below illustrates 10 different companies within the theme. They are spanning a broad area of the theme and is intended as an inspirational list only:
How the list was created: Each theme consists of a number of companies from ETFs and indices within the given theme. The list above is created by sampling 10 different companies from the theme, making sure that the companies have a low mutual correlation within the theme, such that they span a broad part of the overall theme. Note that this is based on historical performance which is not an indicator for future returns. The list is for inspirational purpose only and should not be considered as trade recommendations in any way.
Price evolution of a thematic ETF within the theme - over 6 months and 5 years, respectively: