Does Trump's hubris mark the turning point? Does Trump's hubris mark the turning point? Does Trump's hubris mark the turning point?

Does Trump's hubris mark the turning point?

Equities 5 minutes to read
PG
Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  The US President yesterday took credit for the 50% stock market rally in the NASDAQ Composite Index since his election. This is a stunning act of hubris given that almost everything is out of his hands and that it is squarely the Fed’s U-turn on January 4 that has sparked the current sentiment rally.


Key equity indices are rolling over today and the price action of German and South Korean equities confirms for the second straight day that the price rises in China should heavily be discounted as a credible signal that things are turning around for the better. Timely indicators such as the Chemical Activity Barometer showed an unabated slowdown in January underscoring that this recent rally is all based on hope and not underlying macro fundamentals. We remain cautious here and recommend investors to reduce equity exposure and take their gains from early January. The risk-reward ratio is not in favour of taking risk at these levels.

S&P 500 continuous future (five year weekly prices):

Source: Saxo Bank
BASF tries its best to bolster confidence

The Q4 result was better than expected on operating income while revenue at €15.6bn also surprised against estimates of €14.6bn. As a result investors are responding positively this morning. However, the key takeaway is a muted outlook with slight sales growth expected in FY19 from higher sales volumes and portfolio effects. In addition the company guides ROCE (return on capital employed) slightly higher than cost of capital. Being generally critical of management expectations our take on the outlook is that the company sees a lot of uncertainty and there is risk to the downside to this revenue growth expectations. The historical evidence shows that companies are often very bad forecasters in the late stage of the business cycle, so at this point investors should discount companies current outlooks.

Housing market outlook in HK and China 

Tomorrow one of the largest residential property developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties, is reporting 1H results with analysts expecting EPS to decline 16% y/y and revenue declining 13% y/y. This should not be a surprise given the housing weakness in China and Hong Kong. But more importantly the outlook and any clues about the sentiment and especially credit conditions among buyers is very important to watch.
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.