Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Short-term Bitcoin seems to unfold a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder reversal pattern with potential to 23K. Medium-term trend is still up
Bitcoin BTCUSD is short-term in a down trend after closing below 27,000 and now taking out the Neckline in what looks like a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern.
The bearish break out suggest down side potential to around 23K as indicated by the vertical arrows.
RSI is at thee time of writing below 40 supporting the bearish picture.
For BTCUSD to reverse this bearish move a close above 29,900 is needed.
Medium-term BTCUSD is still in an uptrend with no RSI divergence indicating BTC to resume uptrend after a correction that is currently unfolding. 200 weekly Moving Average is providing support but for BTC . The medium-term uptrend needs to break above 31,050 for a move to strong resistnace at around 48K
To confirm a downtrend a close below 19,565.