Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Wheat is breaking bullish out of its short term corrective falling channel. Minor resistance at $1,167 and 1,213.No divergence on RSI indicates bullish trend to resume. If RSI closes above 60 which is likely Bull trend is confirmed.
Corn trading above its short term falling trend line breaking bullish out of Descending like triangle pattern. RSI above 60 confirms Bullish trend has resumed and March peak at around 782.75 likely to be tested and broken.
Soybeans jumped back above medium trend line after finding strong support at $1,579If breaking above short term falling trend line new highs are likely. RSI breaking above falling trend line could be first indication of that scenario to play out.
Coffee confirming uptrend. Back above 100 and 55 SMA’s. RSI above 60 confirm Bullish trend. Some resistance at $241. If a Daily close below 224 Coffee will go back to neutral.
Cotton likely to test March peak at around $141.80. RSI above 60 threshold i.e. short term falling trend line very likely to be broken.
If taking out March peak no strong resistance before around 160-168 level. A Daily close below 131 will reverse the uptrend
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach