Technical Update - Energy: Oil, Gas, Uranium, Emission
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Oil has broken below rising trend line but still above key support at $96.75. RSI is above 40 threshold i.e. in positive sentiment indicating a bounce from current levels are likely.
If we see a daily close below key support at 96.75 some support at $90.00.
WTI closed below its rising trend line Wednesday but closed yesterday above support at $95.82 and more importantly above March low at 93.53.
RSI is still above 40 threshold i.e. in positive sentiment.
Dutch TTF gas range bound between €95.00 and 133.00. RSI indicates break out is likely to be to the upside.
Henry Hub Gas is within a few cents from testing 2021 peak at $6.466. A correction should be expected starting next couple of days should be expected. However, there is no divergence on RSI indicating we could see higher levels above 6.466 after a likely correction.
However, historically $6.50 is a very strong resistance level. Looking at the monthly chart we can see how prices were knocked down the past two times.
Uranium (Sprott Physical Uranium Trust USD) yesterday moved higher in a steep rising trend. It could be a rising Wedge like formation. Divergence on RSI is building. If the Uranium Trust closes below $14.83 we are likely to see a correction down to around 13.75.
Carbon Emission still range bound between €75.00 and 81.50. Break out is needed for direction. RSI indicates it could be bearish. €81.50 is strong resistance.
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.