Technical Update - Robusta Coffee reversing corrective downtrend. Will Coffee follow same pattern?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Coffee is in a medium-term (corrective?) downtrend in a wide falling channel. Bounced from the 0.382 retracement at around 196 Coffee could be headed for at test of the upper falling trendline. First indication could be RSI breaking above its upper falling trendline and coffee to close above its 55 weekly SMA.
The short-term the bounce could have potential to reverse the medium-term downtrend. Daily RSI needs to close above 60 to confirm and indicate further upside. An upside that needs to take out the upper falling trendline. If rejected the medium-term down is likely to resume
Maybe the Robusta Coffee is an indication of what is coming in Coffee. Robusta coffee has rebounded from its 0.382 retracement of the entire 2020-2021 uptrend and has broken bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern which could be the Forth corrective vawe.
If Robusta closes above 2.16 it has confirmed reversal of the downtrend and is likely to trade higher towards previous peak around 2.45. Strong resistance at around 2.30.
RSI has broken above its falling trendline supporting the rebound picture. A close above 60 will further confirm an uptrend.
Short-term Robust is fast approaching 200 daily SMA. RSI above 60 and no divergence which indicates higher levels are likely. Resistance at around 2.185 and the 200 daily SMA. A minor correction should be expected around that level before uptrend is likely to resume.
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