Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators were broad-based sellers of commodities last week as the uncertainty regarding the outlook for global growth and with that demand for commodities continued to take its toll
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodity report for the week ending June 18, click here.
Money managers, speculators or hedge funds as most tend to call them sold commodity futures during the week ending August 13. The net-long across 24 major futures, including the European based Brent and gas oil contracts, dropped by 27% to 313k lots, a four months low. While bonds have raced higher, commodities with gold and silver the two most noticeable exceptions, have all been struggling amid raised growth concerns and ample supply.
Gold’s phenomenal rally to a six-year high was tested last week following the US tariff announcement. The violent $55/oz retracement from $1535/oz was more an indication of how crowded the trade has become than a change in the fundamental outlook. Gold and not least silver were sold and in gold it triggered a small 2% reduction on the week to 278k lots, some 9k lots below the 2016 record.
Just like $1380/oz was the support following the July breakout the next support level to focus on now is the $1480-85/oz area with a break below signalling a period of consolidation but at this stage not a reversal.
The record copper short was reduced by 8% with speculators reducing short positions in response to the break and subsequent recovery back above key support. Platinum’s discount to gold widened further resulting in a 10% reduction in the net-long to just 7k lots.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.
