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A pivotal 24-hour window for global markets.
Podcast 24 minutes to read
Résumé: Equity markets hit fresh highs on hopes for a friendlier terms-of-trade stance between the US and China to be agreed ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting meant to take place in South Korea tomorrow. We note the important details that need to emerge to justify the market's enthusiasm in what could prove a critical 24-hour window for global markets, with the FOMC on tap later today and an important BoJ meeting tomorrow as well. Plenty of single company stories to pick through as earnings roll in and macro developments are heating up several currencies as well. This and much more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s Links
QT to wind down soon and yield to fresh QE?
This was something we flagged months ago, but it now appears that we are at crunch time soon on when the Fed, if it really wants to control its policy rate, will have to surrender control of its balance sheet to the Treasury, a.k.a. the era of total fiscal dominance is soon upon us. Some thoughts from the “Fed guy” Joseph Wang on this as well as from FTAlphaville.
Crypto acting weird - what is this all about?
I have no idea myself, but in recent weeks, crypto has stopped correlating with general risk sentiment. When long-established divergences break, it doesn’t mean they necessarily will rejoin, but that something else is afoot. Endgame Macro takes a stab at declaring that crypto may be taking on a new more prominent role now. Time will tell - share your thoughts and/or share links to the people you follow that are neither boosters nor haters but the experts and visionaries grappling with understanding all of these signals!
Big single stock swings are becoming more common and perhaps also worrisome.
FT note that these enormous 100 billion-plus moves in single stocks are a possible sign of fragility. Sounds right - the broader volatility could suddenly become eye-watering if a cluster of stocks - think AI - are all hit by the same news item. Be careful out there.
Humanoid robots to fold your clothes and do your dishes?
For just USD 499 a month, you can rent a NEO robot that “does your chores and offers personalized assistance” and even, apparently, can dance for you on command. It apparently ships next year, and will do things autonomously or via human control remotely for an assist. Is this really the future?
Finally, these are the cases against Trump’s tariffs the Supreme Court will hear next Wednesday.
Chart of the Day - Another big day for Nvidia
Nvidia’s shares advanced another 5% on hopes that the US will open up for Nvidia Blackwell (highest end GPU’s for data center AI applications) exports to China. Certainly, China has the leverage in its control of rare earth supply chains to have extracted this and further concessions. But China has previously signalled that it wants to go it alone on AI infrastructure. Was that a way of casting doubt on US leverage on its access to the highest end chips? Time will tell, but Nvidia shares are now priced for this additional boost to demand, at least in the near term - requiring that in coming day or days, that the US will loosen controls on chip exports. The move has taken the company’s market cap to just south of USD 4.9 trillion, a fresh record.
Weekly chart
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