Morning Brew October 21 2025

Good Morning,

Equities celebrated a risk-on sentiment yesterday, with the major US indexes gaining more than 1%. Apple and the Semiconductor Index reached all-time highs. Germany’s DAX climbed 1.8%, and the Nikkei is approaching 50,000. Yesterday’s trading volume was below the 20-day average, with 17.7 billion shares traded compared to the 20-day average of 20 billion.

Gold made a second attempt to break above 4,380 but failed, retreating to 4,325, while silver settled at 51.50. Bitcoin lost 3% overnight and is trading at 107,700. Ole pointed out yesterday that the overall case for precious metals remains bullish until firmly proven otherwise, but after the parabolic rise, there is room for consolidation. The lack of position data from the US causes a significant information deficit.

US 10-year yields are near 4%, and the USD Index has risen to 98.80. EUR/USD is at 1.1625, GBP/USD at 1.3370, and USD/JPY at 151.70. The USD is mid-range between 97.50 and 99.50.

Earnings and politics are key market drivers as the US government shutdown prevents crucial insights into US data. On Friday, the CPI will be released despite the shutdown. Tesla, Netflix, and regional banks are likely the key items to watch, but many significant companies could also surprise and cause markets to shift. 

• White House advisor Kevin Hassett anticipates that the government shutdown will conclude this week, but cautioned that “stronger measures” could be implemented if it does not.
• U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about reaching a fair trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping and minimized concerns about potential conflict over Taiwan, adding that he expects to visit China in early 2026.
• NASA is seeking an alternative provider to SpaceX for its upcoming moon landing mission.
• Amazon has announced that its AWS cloud services have returned to normal operations.
• Sanae Takaichi has been elected as Japan’s first female prime minister. She is expected to follow Margret Thatchers footsteps.

Oct 21 Tue: Canada – CPI
Coca Cola, GE Aerospace, RTX; 3M, GM, Northorp Gruman, Netflix, TI, Mattel, Capital one, EastWest Bank,

Oct 22 Wed: UK – CPI
Hilton, AT&T, ThermoFisher, Tesla, IBM, Texas Capital Bankl, SAP, Alcoa, Knight,

Oct 23 Thu: US - Initial Claims, Home Sales, Canada Retail Sales, EU Consumer confidence
American Airlines, Honeywell, Intel, Newmont, Ford,

Oct 24 Fri: UK - Retail Sales Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI, Eurozone - Markit Manufacturing PMI, US CPI & PMI

P&G,