Morning Brew November 25 2025

Good Morning,

Risk sentiment saw another positive day yesterday, driven largely by the absence of negative news, reinforcing the adage that "no bad news is good news." The probability of a December rate cut remains at 70%, and Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller, John Williams, and Mary Daly made dovish comments. Investor risk appetite was further buoyed by Deutsche Bank's projection that the S&P 500 would reach 8,000 by the end of next year. Consequently, the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%, the Nasdaq jumped by 2.7%, and the Dow gained 240 points.

Technology stocks led the market gains: Broadcom soared by 11.1% on renewed AI infrastructure trade with Alphabet, which itself climbed 6.3% following the Gemini 3 announcement that boosted its value past Microsoft. Alphabet saw a further 2.5% increase in post-market trading after reports surfaced that Meta is investing billions to integrate Google's TPU. Tesla also rose by 6.8% on advancements with its next-generation AI chips.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 18.3 billion shares, slightly below the recent average of 20 billion. Novo Nordisk, meanwhile, slid around 9%, reaching its lowest point in four years after its Alzheimer's drug trial failed to meet expectations.

The three major U.S. indexes are poised to test the 50-day moving averages, with a breakthrough potentially signaling a positive technical trend.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 4.03%, while the USD Index remains at 1.1515, GBPUSD at 1.31, and USDJPY at 1.5660. In contrast to other asset classes, the forex market remains unusually calm, with the USD Index trading range at its narrowest in a year.

Precious metals had a strong day, with gold rising to 4,150 and silver to 51.60, while Bitcoin has recovered to 88,000.

President Donald Trump stated on Monday that relations with China are "extremely strong" following a call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Investor Michael Burry, who has expressed skepticism of the current AI boom, has launched a paid newsletter, with a focus on stocks, market and economic trends, days after shutting down his hedge fund.  The newsletter attracted  21,000 subscribers and costs $39 per month. He has hinted at a publication schedule of generally one or more pieces most weeks.

On today's agenda, we have data releases from Germany and the U.S. Although the U.S. PPI and Retail Sales are typically significant, this release pertains to September, and may not hold as much importance now compared to the Consumer Confidence update at 16:00 CET.

Germany will begin its four-day budget discussions, and the UK is set to present its next budget tomorrow.

Koen compiled his weekly summary and outlook:

The Saxo Weekly Market Compass 24 November 2025

The past week showed how sensitive markets remain to a narrow set of themes: AI valuations, patchy data and shifting expectations for central banks. Local European indices came under pressure but held important levels, even as sector leadership rotated away from prior winners like tech and defence. Crypto continued to act as a leveraged proxy on global liquidity, and bonds moved cautiously toward a softer-growth view without fully pricing an aggressive cutting cycle.

The week ahead won’t resolve every question, but it should bring clearer signals on the US consumer, corporate spending and the Fed’s room for manoeuvre. For now, the balance between opportunity and risk still favours selectivity, diversification and disciplined risk management over broad, momentum-driven exposure.

Tuesday November 25
- Germany GDP, US PPI & Retail Sales
- AlibabaGroup, Nio, Kohls, Dell, Workday,

Wednesday November 26
- AU CPI,  US Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods PCE
- JohnDeere
- Livestream Commodity Event

Thursday November 27
-
Thanksgiving

Friday November 28
- Japan CPI, Swiss KOF, European CPI,
Black Friday