Morning Brew November 18 2025

Good Morning,

Concerns about tech valuations, insider and smart money selling, diminishing hopes for a December rate cut, and profit-taking are weighing on risk sentiment. The usual white knight—massive ETF purchases from savings plans—is still two weeks away.

Adding fuel to concerns are rising Japanese yields. The yen is widely used for financing trades, and if borrowing becomes more expensive, it sours the mood. Yesterday, indexes closed lower across the board, and this morning sentiment remains risk-averse: the Dow closed down 1.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq was down 0.8%. The Topix Index fell for the third day, dropping 2.9%, or 96.43 to 3,251.10 in Tokyo. The move was the biggest since falling 3.4% on April 9. 

Alphabet defied the trend, rising 3.1% after Berkshire Hathaway announced a $4.3 billion stake, while Dell and HP lost significantly following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley. Japanese 20-year yields rose to their highest level this millennium, but U.S. yields remain near 4.10%, and the USD Index is steady near 99.50. Gold and silver experienced significant profit-taking, dropping to 4000 and 49.50, respectively. Watch for Ole’s take on the matter on the platform—Bitcoin has fallen below 90k, and there could be room to move to 75k.

• Despite rising yields, USDJPY has hit 155, EURUSD is at 1.16, and GBPUSD is at 1.3160. The elephant in the room is Nvidia's earnings tomorrow, and to a lesser extent, Home Depot's earnings today. Ruben took a look at the Nvidia announcement what to watch for:
  Nvidia's earnings on November 19 now function as an AI stress test.

• Bloomberg consensus expects about $55 billion USD revenue and $1.26 earnings per share, driven by data center demand.

• Circular AI spending and accounting worries mean guidance, cash flow, and mix may matter more than beats.

Key for today is whether we will receive any boost in sentiment. Even though I am a bit unsure what that might be—with little economic news on the agenda—it would likely come from a central bank or other positive comments. Let's see.

This may be the bubble bursting, or a great buying opportunity. Consider how much you are willing to risk and consider insurances and stops.

Home Depot, Baidu, Klarna,

Speaker: Barr

Wednesday November 19

UK CPI, EU HICP

Target, Wix, Lowe`s, Nvidia, Paloalto,

Thursday November 20

China Rate Decision, US Nonfarm Payroll September US Initial Jobless claims, EU Consumer Confidence

Walmart,

Speaker Hammack, Cook, Golsbee, Paulsopn.

Friday November 21

Japan CPI, UK Reetail Sales. International PMI.

Speakers: Bar, Jefferson, Logan