Morning Brew November 10 2025

Good Morning,

I can discard my prep work over the weekend that assumed we might have a quiet week for once because there is little in terms of economic data, earnings, or real insights to the U.S. economy expected. However, on news that the U.S. Senate has made real progress in reopening the federal government and ending a now 40-day shutdown, risk sentiment flourishes. This is further aided by news that China has lifted its ban on exporting "dual-use items" such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the U.S., effective until November 27, 2026. The markets respond as follows: US500 +0.55% to 6777, US Tech 100 NAS +1% to 25375, GER40 +0.5% to 23865, Gold +1.7% to 4070, Silver +2.5% to 49.50, Bitcoin +2.6% to 106202.

Friday was a fairly calm trading day, with most indexes moving less than 0.5%. What was noteworthy was that U.S. indexes tested the 50-day moving averages and found support there—quite a nice-looking formation. Let's see if it holds.

The USD Index falls below the 100 level after it also bounces off the 50-day moving average. Rates are a little higher, with the 10s at 4.13. EURUSD is at 1.1560, GBPUSD at 1.3150, and USDJPY at 154.05. Germany's 10-year government bond yield hits a fresh 1-month high at 2.699%.

Pfizer has won the battle for obesity drug developer Metsera in a $10 billion deal against a bid by Novo Nordisk.

China's PPI fell less than expected, and the CPI came in higher at 0.2% versus the expected 0.0%.

From here, there is little in terms of key economic data or earnings this week, but the resolution of the U.S. Shutdown will be in focus. If it is lifted, we will see a gradual return of U.S. economic data to provide insight into the state of the U.S. economy. If it falls through, there will be massive disappointment.

In the mid-term, the key focus will turn to AI companies and the question of whether valuations will be met with the required earnings, or if we will see a 2000-like bursting of a bubble. Additionally, with the re-emergence of U.S. data, we will gain an understanding of labor market strength or weakness as well as inflation. We are 4 weeks away from the final rate decision of the year, with the current expectation at 60/40 for a cut of 25 bps versus no cut.

Monday November 10

• Barrick and Rigetti earnings

  Tuesday November 11

• UK Jobless data, DE ZEW,
• Beyond Meat

  Wednesday November 12

• DE Inflation
• On, Cisco,

  Thursday November 13

• AU Employment data, UK GDP, US Initial Jobless claims,
• Walt Disney, JD.Com,

  Friday November 14

• China Retail sales, France CPI, EU GDP,