Morning Brew June 30 2025

Good morning,

We are ending a flabbergasting first half year today with the USD at the lows and Equities at highs.

We are heading into a data-laden week that will peak on Thursday with the Non-Farm Payroll as Friday is US Independence day.

Charu took a look at US Equities and drivers into July:

• Macro tailwinds are stacking up: Easing geopolitical tensions, renewed AI momentum, trade optimism and Fed easing expectations have helped propel US markets to record highs.
• Rally breadth is improving—but still uneven: While participation is widening beyond tech, lagging sectors like consumer discretionary and healthcare raise questions about durability.
• July is packed with catalysts: Tax bill, trade negotiation deadlines, earnings season, and key data releases could either validate the rally or trigger a sharp reassessment—especially if Fed credibility or growth expectations come under pressure.
• Strategy outlook: For now, the US market remains the clear global leader, buoyed by strong earnings momentum, macro resilience, and AI-driven enthusiasm. The rally has broadened beyond tech, but not uniformly. With critical political decisions, trade headlines, earnings results, and economic data all coming to a head in July, this month could very well decide whether the rally builds further—or begins to crack.

Koen took a look on how to go long SAP :

Why SAP, and why now?

SAP SE has seen strong share price performance in recent years. After reaching record highs above EUR 275 in May, the stock recently pulled back to EUR 255.50 as of 24 June.

This decline has occurred ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report, expected on 22 July. In periods like this, option premiums tend to rise—particularly when volatility increases—creating a context where some strategies may generate relatively higher income for the same level of commitment.

On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 32 points, or 0.5%, to close at 6,73 points. The Nasdaq rose by 106 points, or 0.5%, to 20,273. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 430 points, or 1%, to 43,817, but it remained 2.7% below its record closing high reached on December 4. Financial markets have priced in a 76% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will implement its first rate cut of the year in September. The volume on U.S. exchanges was 22.07 billion shares, compared to the average of 18.27 billion shares.

The Big, beautiful Bill passed its first Senate test after the removal of section 899, the so-called revenge bill.  U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly cut off trade talks with Canada on Friday over its tax targeting U.S. technology firms, calling it a "blatant attack" and announcing that he would set a new tariff rate on Canadian goods within the next week. Apparently, Canada is waiving the tax over the weekend. The dollar retraced earlier losses against the euro on Friday after President Trump said the United States was ending trade talks with Canada and that he would consider bombing Iran again, which dented risk appetite and sent stocks lower. The Canadian dollar extended its losses on Friday, falling 0.5% against the U.S. dollar to C$1.37 per dollar.

Precious metals were under pressure, likely due to month-end adjustments. Platinum lost 5.5%, silver fell by 1.75%, and gold decreased by 1.65%.

10 Year Yields are at 4.28% and the USD index 97.25, EURUSD ended the week 1.1720, USDJPY 144.65 and Cable 1.3714. USDCHF closed at the lowest weekly level since 2011

This morning the US 500 is testing the 6200, the GER40 is back above 24k, Bitcoin is 108k – it seems risk on it the key sentiment – will it hold?

Trade safely!

- June 30 , 2025 (Monday)
- UK GDP
- Swiss KOF
- DE CPI
- July 1, 2025 (Tuesday)
- Japan Tankan Survey
- China PMI
- US ISM & PMI
  - Construction Spending (10:00)–May U.S.
  - Domestic Vehicle Sales–Jun U.S.
  - Nationwide House Prices (2:00)–Jun U.K.
  - CPI (5:00)–Jun P Eurozone
- July 2, 2025 (Wednesday)
  - ADP Employment Report (8:15)–Jun U.S.
  - Unemployment Rate (5:00)–May Eurozone
- July 3, 2025 (Thursday)
- China PMI
  - Trade Balance (8:30)–May U.S.
  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun U.S.
  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May U.S.
  - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (10:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May F U.S.
  - Merchandise Trade Balance (8:30)–May Canada
- July 4, 2025 (Friday)
  - No major G10 releases (U.S. holiday
- July 7, 2025 (Monday)
  - Leading Indicators (1:00)–May P Japan
  - Current Account (19:50)–May Japan
  - Trade Balance (19:50)–May Japan
  - Retail Sales (5:00)–May Eurozone

- July 8, 2025 (Tuesday)
  - Consumer Credit (15:00)–May U.S.
- July 9, 2025 (Wednesday)
- China CPI & PPI
- AU rate decision
  - Wholesale Inventories (10:00)–May F U.S.
  - Machine Tool Orders (2:00)–Jun P Japan

- July 10,

  - Industrial Production (2:00)–May U.K.

  - Trade Balance (2:00)–May U.K.