Morning Brew June 16 2026

Good morning.

Wall Street rallied on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 3% and the Dow closing at a record high after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The news eased inflation concerns as crude oil prices dropped.

The three main indexes posted their third consecutive session of gains. SpaceX rose 19% to 192, while Tesla added 2%. Among other movers, Fox shares fell 17% after the company said it would buy Roku in a $22 billion deal; Roku shares declined 1.9%. Nvidia said on Monday it would raise $25 billion through a U.S. bond issuance, tapping the debt market to increase liquidity for the first time since 2021.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 468.77 points, or 0.92%, to 51,671.03, while the S&P 500 gained 122.83 points, or 1.65%, to 7,554.29.

The USD Index has come off yesterday’s lows to trade at 99.75. EUR/USD is at 1.1575, GBP/USD at 1.3390, and USD/JPY at 160.30 despite a hawkish Bank of Japan. The BoJ raised interest rates to a 31-year high, as expected, focusing on inflationary pressures from the energy shock caused by the Iran war.

EUR/CHF is above 0.92 and USD/CHF is at 0.7955 ahead of what may be the least eventful Swiss rate decision in recent memory on Thursday.
Gold is at 4,315 and silver at 69.30. Oil is testing the lows seen since the outbreak of the Iran war, while Bitcoin is at 66,300.

China’s economy showed increasing unevenness in May. Retail sales fell for the first time in more than three years, dropping 0.6% versus expectations for no change, while investment weakened and industrial output picked up pace.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf had been signed by the U.S. and Iran. Details have yet to be made public, and both countries said a permanent truce still needs to be negotiated.

Traders are waiting for tangible details on the U.S.–Iran deal and are also looking ahead to tomorrow’s Fed press conference and dot plot. The FOMC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The key benchmark is likely to be the year-end rate, currently priced at 3.8%, implying a 55% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.

Today, the G7 meeting enters its second day, with Ukraine and the Middle East in focus. Representatives from Meta and Google are also expected. The German ZEW Index and Italian CPI are unlikely to excite traders.

In Germany, UniCredit’s offer for Commerzbank shares expires, so some volatility is possible. In Switzerland, Infracore is expected to IPO soon.

Please find Rubens take on SpaceX here:

Tesla after SpaceX: one Musk, two market stories | Saxo Bank Switzerland

Tuesday June 16 2026

UK House Prices, China Retail Sales, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW, Bank of Japan rate decision

Wednesday June 17 2026
UK CPI, EU Inflation, U.S. Retail Sales, FOMC rate decision

Thursday June 18 2026
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Swiss National Bank rate decision, Bank of England rate decision

Friday June 19 2026
Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales