Morning Brew June 11 2026

Good morning.

The rotation out of technology continues, the Middle East ceasefire remains fragile, and the US inflation data was broadly in line with expectations. Headline inflation came in at 4.2%, while core inflation was 2.9%. Monthly core inflation was slightly below expectations at 0.2% versus 0.3% expected.

Continued exchanges of fire, despite the formal ceasefire between Iran and the US, remain a concern.

Wall Street fell sharply on Wednesday as US-Iran tensions escalated and the rotation out of technology continued. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 7,267, its lowest close since May 5, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.0%, marking its first back-to-back decline of more than 1% since March. The Dow lost 953 points, or 1.9%. Chipmakers led the selloff, with Qualcomm down 6.1%, AMD down 5.1%, Nvidia down 3.7%, and Super Micro Computer plunging 28.0% after announcing plans to raise $7 billion through equity financing. Cracker Barrel rose as much as 35% intraday after lifting its revenue guidance. Amazon’s trucking expansion weighed on freight names, with Old Dominion down 5.1%, FedEx Freight down 7.0%, and Saia down 3.3%. After hours, Oracle fell around 7% after reporting higher-than-expected quarterly capex of $16.5 billion, which overshadowed a modest beat in cloud infrastructure revenue.

Oil is trading around 1% below yesterday’s close, at USD 90.50 in the US benchmark and USD 93.40 in Europe. US exports reached approximately 10.5 million barrels per day in May, up from around 6.5 million, which may help explain why prices are not higher.

Zurich Airport reported 9% more passengers than in May 2025, suggesting that, at least on this measure, there is no dramatic decline in tourism.

The USD Index is at 100, EURUSD at 1.1540, GBPUSD at 1.3380, and USDJPY at an uncomfortable 160.50. The Bank of Japan announced today that Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalised for medical treatment and will miss the June 15–16 policy meeting.

Silver is at 64, gold is testing support at 4,095, platinum is at 1,670, and Bitcoin is at 62,500.

This morning, the US500 is at 7,300, the US30 at 50,070, and the US Tech 100 at 28,700. The GER40 is at 24,230. All are trading higher versus yesterday’s close.

The main event today is the ECB rate decision, followed by the press conference. It would be a major surprise if there were no hike, with the probability above 95%. The key focus will be the inflation outlook, as it should indicate the likely ECB path. If inflation is projected to return toward 2% in the not-too-distant future, the number of further hikes may be limited.

US PPI is usually less important than CPI and is only likely to move markets if it surprises meaningfully.

The upcoming IPOs, next week’s US rate decision, and the situation in the Middle East remain the key themes to watch.

Thursday, June 11
U.S. PPI, ECB rate decision

Friday, June 12
UK industrial production, UK GDP, U.S. Michigan sentiment, SpaceX IPO