Morning Brew February 11 2026

Good morning,

Moderate market moves ahead of the US Labor market data

The Nonfarm Payroll today are expected at 70k, the unemployment rate at 4.4% and average earnings at 3.6%. After the weak retail sales yesterday, 10 year yields fell as rate cuts are more likely and we are now expecting 60 basis points in rate cuts by year end. A worse jobs report would make a deeper cut likely while better data would be hawkish…

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December as households scaled back spending on vehicles and other big-ticket items, the expectation had been an increase of 0.4%.

The Dow gained 0.2% to a new record while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.  Spotify jumped nearly 15% on strong results due to a strong active user growth of 11% y The GER40 is just above 25k and the Nikkei hits another all time high.

Alphabet on Tuesday sold a rare 100-year bond, a memo from the lead manager showed, part of a $31.51 billion global bond raise, as artificial intelligence-driven spending sparks a surge in borrowing at U.S. tech giants.

Heineken said on Wednesday it would cut up to 6,000 jobs globally and cut the 26 projection on weak demand for beers.

The Dollar fell with lower yields and the USD Index is trading at 96.60, EURUSD 1.1915, GBPUSD 1.3660 and USDJPPY fell to 153.10. EURCHF is 0.9122 and USDCHF 0.7660!

Gold and Silver are stable at 83,50 and 5065 while Bitcoin fails to inspire and falls to 66.5k

The Nonfarm Payroll and earnings will dominate sentiment today, the nonfarm payroll may take some traders by surprise as it is an absolute outlier that it is released on a wednesday

Wednesday, 11 Feb 2026
United States: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan), Treasury Statement (Jan)

China: CPI (Jan), PPI (Jan)

Italy: Industrial Production (Dec)

Earnings: McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 2025, T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q4 2025, Shopify (SHOP) Q4 2025, Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2026, Humana (HUM) Q4 2025

Thursday, 12 Feb 2026
United States: Existing Home Sales (Jan)

United Kingdom: GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (Dec), Trade Balance (Dec)

Switzerland: CPI (Jan)

Earnings: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2025, Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 2025, Applied Materials (AMAT) Q4 2025, Pinterest (PINS) Q4 2025, other notable mid-caps per full calendar

Friday, 13 Feb 2026

United States: CPI & Core CPI (Jan)

Eurozone: GDP Q4 (2nd estimate), Trade Balance (Dec)

Brazil: Retail or inflation indicator (Jan), depending on official schedule

Earnings: NatWest Group (NWG) Q4 2025, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Q4 2025, Deere & Company (DE) Q4 2025, Arbor Realty (ABR) Q4 2025, other scheduled mid-caps