Morning Brew December 11 2025

Good morning,

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision was largely in line with expectations, but a disappointing earnings report from Oracle has dampened market sentiment. Oracle shares fell more than 10% in after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected cloud revenue and increased spending on AI data centers. Fiscal Q2 cloud sales missed forecasts, raising concerns about Oracle’s debt-fueled infrastructure expansion and aggressive AI spending commitments. As a result, today’s focus shifts to Broadcom’s earnings after the bell.

After a positive close yesterday, equity indexes are now under pressure: the US 500 stands at 6,830, the US 30 at 47,870, the US Tech 100 NAS at 25,480, and the GER40 at 24,040. This setback dims hopes for an imminent rally and a break to new all-time highs in the S&P 500.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in December 2025, with a dovish 9-3 vote split. Notably, three members opposed the cut—the first such dissent since 2019. The Fed kept its rate projections steady, signaling another 25 basis point cut in 2026, while revising GDP growth forecasts higher and slightly lowering PCE inflation estimates. Unemployment forecasts remain at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026.

Meanwhile, the Swiss government announced that 15% US tariffs on Swiss goods will be applied retroactively starting from November 14th.

On the commodities front, silver has broken above $62. Ole Hansen recently analyzed the fundamentals behind this move: Silver’s breakout year: from monetary hedge to industrial powerhouse  This surge is driven by a rare alignment of monetary, structural, and physical-market forces. Tight supply, price-inelastic industrial demand, and policy-driven dislocations have amplified the rally far beyond what gold alone would justify. For manufacturers in solar energy, electric vehicles, AI, and data centers, silver is essential—though it represents a relatively small share of total production costs. Running out of supply is not an option.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bullish case for silver remains intact but faces risks, including potential policy reversals, relative valuation concerns, and a possible cooling in AI-driven demand.

Gold has pulled back from yesterday’s high but remains above $4,200, while Bitcoin is under pressure from the decline in AI sentiment and is currently trading around $90,000.

At 9:30 we are expecting the Swiss National Bank Rate decision, anything but no change would take the market by utter surprise, both economists as well as traders. EURCHF is 0.9350 and USDCHF is below the 0.80.

Thursday December 11

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless claims, Canada Trade balance

Costco, Broadcom, RH (Restoration Hardware), Lululemon

Friday December 12

Germany Inflation, UK GDP, France CPI