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Morning Brew August 31 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Strong UBS into Month End - PCE Today
Good Morning,
Indexes had another strong day yesterday as fairly weak jobs data and less growth than expected in the US GDP increase dovish sentiment. The US 500 took the 4500, the NASDAQ 100 ist at 15460 and the GER40 15916
Nvidia closed at an all time high again while Tesla dropped on a government probe in to the range of it`s vehicles. HP traded under pressure after a disappointing outlook, Mastercard and Visa are looking to increase fees and gained app. 0.5%.
Yields fell and the US 10 year is trading at 4.11, having breached the 4.10 earlier. The probability of a hike this year is less than 50% now and by July 2024 two rate cuts are fully priced in.
The USD Gave up ground and the USD Index is testing the 200d SMA. The Index is 106.14 and the moving average at 103.04.
EURUSD rose to above 1.09, GBPUSD took the 1.27 and USDJPY is trading 145.90. Gold and Silver are at 1944 and 24.55 looking for clues.
UBS reported numbers and strategy this morning and at 9 we will see if Sergio Ermotti can convince the market. Here are the highlights:
- UBS will fully absorb Credit Suisse Swiss Bank : Our analysis clearly shows that a full integration is the best outcome for UBS, our stakeholders and the Swiss economy
- Net Profit was USD 29 bio, below the expectation of 33.5 Bio.
- Credit Suisse reported net asset outflows of CHF 39 billion UBS's net new money of $16 billion
- UBS expects $10 billion in annual cost savings from the deal 2026
- CS Employees fell to 34k from 26k in March
In premarket trading, the shares gain app 3.5%.
Today we await the German unemployment (9:55) , EU inflation(11) , the usual US Initial jobless (14:30) numbers and as key the Feds favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price index. It is a measure of prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. Last but potentially not least the Chicago PMI will be releases at 15.45.
Also, it is month ultimo so we could see some month end moves and fights for the monthly close. Tomorrow we expect the Swiss CPI at 8:30, International PMI and most importantly the US Labor market data at 14:30 with 170 jobs added in the nonfarm payroll.
Thusday 31 August
- Data DE Unemployment Rate, EU HICP & Unemployment rate, PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings Dollar General UBS Group Dell Technologies, VMware, Broadcom
Friday September 1
- Data China PMI, Swiss CPI, DE & & EU PMI US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, ISM , Canada GDP
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
- HOU3 will expire 31 Aug 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- RBU3 will expire 31 Aug 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
- OILUKOCT23 will expire 31 Aug 2023 at 15:00 GMT