Morning Brew April 1 2026

Good morning

Happy birthday, Apple! The Company was founded 50 Years ago! 

Donald Trump moved markets once again, raising hopes for a near end to the war. He indicated the US could end the war and Iran’s agreement was not necessarily required.

The S&P 500 jumped 2.9% to 6,528, the Nasdaq rallied 3.8%, and the Dow 2.49% to 46,340. Despite a strong close yesterday, all three indexes gave up approximately 5% for the month. The Dow ended a streak of 10 positive months.

CoreWeave rose 12%, Marvell Technology after securing an $8.5 billion loan and news of a stake by Nvidia. Nike disappointed after the bell and shares lost 9% in after-hours trading.

Korean shares rose by 8% this morning, the Japan 225 is trading at 53,500, up 6%, and the GER40 is above 23,000 again.

MSCI is moving Greece from an emerging market to developed.

Yields are lower, with the US at 4.29%, Japan 2.3%, and EU 3%.

Oil is stable, but the base contract for the UK Oil contract changed; the reference is now the June contract at 104.65.

The USD Index fell to 99.78, EURUSD bounced off support at 1.1450 and could rise to 1.1565, GBPUSD is 1.3250, and USDJPY is off the 160 at 158.90.

Gold and silver had a strong day yesterday, currently trading at 4,680 and 74.30.

South Korea's exports beat forecasts in March, rising 48.3% against an expectation of 44.9%—this is the fastest growth in almost 40 years, according to Reuters.

In terms of economic data, we are expecting global PMI today. Most important are the European ones between 9:45 and 11:00, the US and Canada will be released in the afternoon, and US Retail Sales will be released at 2:30 PM, expected at 0.5%.

A PMI is a Purchasing Managers’ Index. It is a monthly economic survey that tracks business conditions in manufacturing and services, with readings above 50 suggesting expansion and below 50 suggesting contraction. PMI are watched by economists, investors, and central banks because it gives an early signal about economic momentum. It is based on responses from purchasing managers about areas such as new orders, employment, output, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Any clearer path to peace in the Middle East will drive markets into the beginning of the new month, Q2 and the long weekend ahead. Liquidity will likely dry up into the Easter Holiday most markets in the west will be closed Friday and Monday, some also Thursdsay.

The fallout of the war will take longer to sort out, with inflation and shortages likely. The current sentiment may be a little too optimistic, but I would happily be proven wrong.

It is the beginning of the month and we are expecting the monthly passive investment inflow, which is often a stabilizing factor.

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Japan Tankan Survey. Global PMI, US Retail Sales.

Thursday, April 2, 2026 US International Trade, Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday, April 3, 2026

China PMI, US Nonfarm Payroll, Good Friday,

Monday, April 6, 2026

Easter Monday. US ISM

Tuesday, April 7, 2026