Podcast - Markets are still walking on broken glass
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Equities were pulled out of potentially a selloff into the weekend on Friday by a 14% gain in Amazon shares and this morning equities are trading slightly higher. However, risks are still everywhere with tightening financial conditions, Ukraine-Russia tensions, high energy prices, high inflation and an elevated VIX curve suggesting the market expects above average volatility over the coming months. We also talk about the oil markets which are digesting potential oil shock from Ukraine-Russia conflict, tight inventories in the US which have eased a bit, and talks between the US and Iran. We also cover our weekly COT report which highlights changes in speculative futures positions across a wide range of commodity markets. Finally, we go through the earnings and macro calendar, with especially earnings this week being interesting with many large cyclical stocks reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.