Podcast - Markets are still walking on broken glass
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Equities were pulled out of potentially a selloff into the weekend on Friday by a 14% gain in Amazon shares and this morning equities are trading slightly higher. However, risks are still everywhere with tightening financial conditions, Ukraine-Russia tensions, high energy prices, high inflation and an elevated VIX curve suggesting the market expects above average volatility over the coming months. We also talk about the oil markets which are digesting potential oil shock from Ukraine-Russia conflict, tight inventories in the US which have eased a bit, and talks between the US and Iran. We also cover our weekly COT report which highlights changes in speculative futures positions across a wide range of commodity markets. Finally, we go through the earnings and macro calendar, with especially earnings this week being interesting with many large cyclical stocks reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
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Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.