Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Leading Asia and Pacific markets are hit by heavy selling. Hang Seng being in rebound mode seems to hit hard resistance
Hang Seng seems to be rejected at the 76.4 retracement of the falling wedge pattern at around 25,030. If breaking above there is room up till around 25,746 possibly 26,214.
For Hang Seng to reverse the short term uptrend a close of gap is needed.
HK 50 CFD (future)
The 76.4 retracement level seems to be too strong for the HK50 CFD (Index future) selling off heavily. If it breaks below 23,918 it has likely reversed the short term uptrend.
S&P ASX 200 went straight through support at 7,257 closing below next support at around 7,145.
Next strong support is at 6,930. The AUS 200 CFD is continuing the selling today. Next support on the AUS200 CFD (future) is at around 6,835.
Nikkei 225 is approaching crucial support levels at around 26,954 in a wide side ways range. 26,850 on the Japan 225 CFD.
Showing weekly time periods on the chart2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.