Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
CAC40 sell-off accelerated pushing Index bearish out of already falling channel. We are likely to see CAC trying to get back above falling lower trend line but is not unlikely to get rejected by a new sell off. RSI is below 40 with no divergence indicating we could see lower levels below March lows.
Similar picture on BEL20 Index. Rebounding this morning and could test falling trend line next few days trying to get back above. However, selling pressure is likely to resume
AEX dipped below falling trend line yesterday now hovering around 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level. Minor rebound over next couple of days to around 687 is not unlikely. However, trend is down and AEX is likely to test March lows here in May. To neutralize this down trend a daily close above 715 is needed.
SMI bouncing off support area around 11,491-11,382. A couple of days rebound is to be expected. However, selling pressure is likely to resume and if breaking below 11,444 likely to intensify pushing SMI to test March lows around 11K.
OMXC25Cap seems to have found support at the March lows around 1,567. A rebound should be expected up to around 1,650. If closing below 1,567, 1,420 is next strong support.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.