Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX has move above the short term falling trend line but seems to fail closing above. Minor resistance at 14,227 seems too strong to break and DAX is at the time of writing back below falling trend line. However, if DAX closes above 14,227 short term uptrend that could take DAX to 14,500-14,900 is confirmed.
RSI is still in bearish sentiment and if DAX closes below short term rising trend line RSI is likely to move back below 40 threshold i.e. confirming down trend to resume.
EUStoxx50 Index remains in bearish trend. For the Index to go in to neutral a close above 3,752 is needed. RSI is bearish and selling pressure could soon resume. A break below 3,592 is likely to fuel sell off for Index testing March lows.
CAC40 in bearish trend and RSI bearish sentiment. CAC40 needs to close above 6,456 to reverse that short term. IF CAC 40 breaks below 6,196 selling pressure is likely to intensify
AEX Amsterdam tried to break the upper falling trend line but it seemed like a false break illustrated with the bearish candle 18th May – a Bearish Engulfing candle. Down trend is still intact and likely to pick up pace next few days.
BEL20 down trend intact. Support at around 3,855 could be taken out which is likely to increase selling pressure. A close above 4,032 is needed to neutralise this negative picture.
OMX C25 cap Strong support at around 1,567 seems too strong for bears to break – for now. Further rebound to around 1,700 is not unlikely. If the Index closes below support 1,420 is next strong support.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.