Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX ran out of steam a few points below key resistance at around 14,952 and below the 0,764 retracement at 14,958.
RSI got rejected at 60 i.e. still showing bear sentiment.
The Index is back below 55 daily SMA (Simple Moving Average). 55, 100 and 200 SMA’s are all falling supporting the picture of an underlying negative sentiment.
The 5 wave down scenario outlined earlier this year is still intact and will remain intact as long as DAX is not closing above 15K.
However, DAX could be stuck in a range between 14,900 and 14,000 next few days. We could see selling pressure intensify over the next few days. If closing below 14K selling pressure is likely to intensify.
GER40 cfd (DAX Future) rejected at the 0,764 Fibonacci retracement If breaks below 14K selling pressure likely to pick up and bear trend to resume.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach