Second, the ECB's 'old' package of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations
, or TLTROs, runs out in 2020. Fundamentally, the ECB does not believe in applying more stimulus from quantitative easing and TLTROs but it needs to build a bridge to a 'fiscal expansion/modern monetary theory' stance in end-2019.
The market has priced in TLTRO operations; look at the Stoxx Bank Index (SX7E), which is up by more than 14% year-to-date. Consider as well that the Bundesbank does not favour further buying.
We are in a period of record low volatility in EURUSD, with today's meeting having the ability to shake things up significantly, depending on the ECB's statement.