Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 9 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 9 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 9 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 9 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Equity markets around the world trade lower with risk sentiment taking hit after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel triggered fears that it may destabilise the region. Crude oil prices jumped with focus on Iran given its potential involvement while gold attracted safe haven demand. The moves in bonds and the dollar, however, have been relatively muted so far as the market also digested Friday’s mixed US job report.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Despite the geopolitical risks rising in the Middle East over the weekend, US equity futures remain relatively muted in their reaction to these events. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% from the Friday close but risk sentiment has not accelerated to the downside in early trading hours. However, it is important to note that the risk picture is very complicated in the short-term depending on how Israel decides to respond medium-term to the weekend’s events. Our defensive stance that we have had since our stagflation lite call a couple of months ago remains.

FX: Risk sensitive trades were in focus in Asia amid the Middle East tensions. The dollar gaped higher at the open, and gains were also seen in JPY and CHF earlier in the session. USDJPY retreated from Friday’s post-NFP highs of 149.53 while USDCHF stayed close to 0.91 and EURCHF dipped closer to 0.96. NOK was the early outperformer on the G10 board as oil prices jumped 4% higher. USDNOK slid below 10.9 while USDCAD traded around 1.3660. Risk sensitive currencies AUD and NZD plunged. Speculators meanwhile doubled their dollar long versus eight IMM futures to a one-year high in the week to Oct. 3.

Commodities: Oil prices jumped, and gold found a haven bid after Hamas’ attack on Israel raised concerns about stability in the Middle East, particularly with WSJ reporting that Iran was involved. If that invokes a US response, oil prices could face more upside pressures. Saudi Arabia, however, expressed their willingness to increase production by early next year if oil prices remain high. Gold returned to $1850 on safe-haven demand and short covering from speculators holding the biggest short since November while copper continues higher as China returns from their week-long holiday.

Fixed income: Following strong nonfarm payrolls last week, the yield on Ten-year US Treasury bonds closed 23bps higher at 2.8%, and 30-year Treasuries just a few basis points away from 5%. Today the market is waking up to the news of a war in Israel, pushing safe haven demand. Although it is too soon to understand the extent of such conflict in markets, it is important to acknowledge that Treasury supply and central banks’ higher for longer stance continue to put pressure on the long part of the yield curve. This week the US Treasury is going to sell 2-, 10- and 30-year notes while the FOMC minutes and CPI numbers are released. We remain neutral on duration and risk, as we determine the extent of news coming out from Israel.

Volatility: Last week’s volatility/VIX moved quite aggressively up to upwards of 20, only to recede back below 18 on Friday. It ended where it took off on Monday (Oct. 2nd), around 17.45. Showing the week was volatile, but effectively didn’t move. Coming week, with important macro news and geopolitical tensions, shows another volatile week ahead, with an expected move for the SPX of +/- 1.62% and +/- 2.20% for the NDX (Nasdaq 100).

Macro: US nonfarm payrolls surprised by a bigger than expected 336k jobs increase in September vs. 227k prior (revised higher from 187k) and 170k expected. Wages and unemployment rate however showed that labor market may be cooling slowly under the hood. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% while wages rose 0.2% M/M again in September, beneath the 0.3% expectation and 4.2% Y/Y, easing from the 4.3% prior and expectation. Canadian labour market data was also strong, with employment up 64k jobs in September (+20k expected). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5% while hourly wages accelerated to 5.3% Y/Y.

In the news:  White House planning face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping in California (Washington Post), China’s official reserve in gold increased to over 70 million troy ounces (SAFE), Tesla's China-made EV sales volume falls 10.9% year-on-year in September (Reuters), How big is this going to get? What to watch for in the Israel-Hamas battle (Politico), Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks (WSJ).

Macro events: Ger Industrial Production (Aug) exp. -0.1% MoM & -1.5% YoY vs –0.8% & -2.1% prior (0600 GMT), Mex CPI (Sep) exp 0.47% MoM & 4.48% YoY vs 0.55% & 4.64% prior (1200 GMT)

Earnings events: PepsiCo reports FY23 Q3 earnings (ending 30 September) tomorrow at 10:30 GMT with analysts expecting revenue growth of 7% y/y and EPS of $2.16 down 1% y/y.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.