Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations, nor advice of any kind.)
Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019
So Dec 12 is the day that Bojo wants a snap election to be held in the UK (i.e. will not be able to make the Oct 31 deadline). He will need 2/3 of parliament to pass the motion & it looks like there could be an EU extension until the end of Jan 2020.
The saga continues, sterling 1.2851 -0.47% also continues to hold up very well.
So it was Flash PMIs Thu o/n & its really a mixed picture across the world. The key takeaway, is there is still not floor in sight to global economic downtown
Australia is hanging by the skin of their teeth on the 50 lvl, south of which would signal contraction. Flash mfg. & Serv. Came in at 50.1 & 50.8, compared to previous figures of 50.3 & 52.5
Japan has now seen ten consecutive months of sub 50 prints in their mfg. PMIs, with the latest missing at 48.5a 49.2e 48.9p.
The Euro-Zone as a block missed: Flash Mfg. PMI 45.7a 46.1e 45.7p, Flash Serv. PMI 51.8e 51.9a 51.6p.
Germany similar to Japan has also had 10 consecutive months of contraction in its mfg. PMI 41.9a 42.0e 41.7p
Its worth noting France bucked the trend in the EZ, with a mfg. PMI that beat, and serv. PMI that was quite strong 52.9a 51.6e 51.1p
The US which is a service focused economy saw its serv. PMIs come in at 51.0 a/e 50.9, yet experienced a decent beat on the mfg. side 51.5a 50.7e 51.1p. ISMs that are due next wk, always garner a lot more focus that the Markit PMIs
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Cross-Asset View: Grind up continues on the S&P, we are not far from all-time new highs. If that inverse head & shoulder technical formation plays out, that could be +500 points in the making over 6-9m.
Treasuries 1.77% hovering around the same lvls they have been of late 1.70 – 1.80, with that said decent +0.79% pop up in gold to get back above $1500 at $1504… for the bulls a weekly close above here would be key.
Dollar as a whole overnight, was neither here nor there.
Econ Data Today:
Next week will see:
Have a brilliant Friday & exceptional wkd up ahead. For those partying it up with the Rugby cup in Japan, enjoy & good luck.
Other:
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
