APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019: Getting ready for an action packed week APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019: Getting ready for an action packed week APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019: Getting ready for an action packed week

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019: Getting ready for an action packed week

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations, nor advice of any kind.)

Happy Macro Fri 25 Oct 2019

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Getting ready for an action packed week


So Dec 12 is the day that Bojo wants a snap election to be held in the UK (i.e. will not be able to make the Oct 31 deadline). He will need 2/3 of parliament to pass the motion & it looks like there could be an EU extension until the end of Jan 2020.

The saga continues, sterling 1.2851 -0.47% also continues to hold up very well.


So it was Flash PMIs Thu o/n & its really a mixed picture across the world. The key takeaway, is there is still not floor in sight to global economic downtown

Australia is hanging by the skin of their teeth on the 50 lvl, south of which would signal contraction. Flash mfg. & Serv. Came in at 50.1 & 50.8, compared to previous figures of 50.3 & 52.5

Japan has now seen ten consecutive months of sub 50 prints in their mfg. PMIs, with the latest missing at 48.5a 49.2e 48.9p.

The Euro-Zone as a block missed: Flash Mfg. PMI 45.7a 46.1e 45.7p, Flash Serv. PMI 51.8e 51.9a 51.6p.

Germany similar to Japan has also had 10 consecutive months of contraction in its mfg. PMI 41.9a 42.0e 41.7p

Its worth noting France bucked the trend in the EZ, with a mfg. PMI that beat, and serv. PMI that was quite strong 52.9a 51.6e 51.1p

The US which is a service focused economy saw its serv. PMIs come in at 51.0 a/e 50.9, yet experienced a decent beat on the mfg. side 51.5a 50.7e 51.1p. ISMs that are due next wk, always garner a lot more focus that the Markit PMIs


Cross-Asset View: Grind up continues on the S&P, we are not far from all-time new highs. If that inverse head & shoulder technical formation plays out, that could be +500 points in the making over 6-9m.

Treasuries 1.77% hovering around the same lvls they have been of late 1.70 – 1.80, with that said decent +0.79% pop up in gold to get back above $1500 at $1504… for the bulls a weekly close above here would be key.

Dollar as a whole overnight, was neither here nor there.


Econ Data Today:

  • EZ: German Ifo Business Climate

  • US: UoM Consumer Sentiment

Next week will see:

  • Will be all about the Fed, not so much in will they cut – that’s currently sitting at a 90.4% probability of a 25bp cut to 1.75% - yet what indication will they give (if any), on future pace of cuts. Still astounded that folks keep talking about a midcycle adjustment
  • Pivotal as well next wk will be final PMI readings, ISMs out of the US will be critical (last month saw the first month of misses in both ISM readings in a long time) as well Non-Farm Payrolls & Average Hourly earnings. Its worth nothing the key US readings come out on Friday Nov 1, so it will be post the Fed Oct 30 meeting. Only exception here will be the first reading of US 3Q GDP where 1.6% is expected vs. a 2.0% final reading from the 2Q.
  • In addition to the Fed we will have rate decisions out of Canada and Brazil, former is expected to stay put at 1.75% whilst the latter to cut by 50bp to 5.00%. We also have the BoJ on the Thu post the Fed.
  • It will also be a Singapore holiday on Monday – Happy Deepavali Everyone – yet have no fear Macro Monday will still be on!
  • Also watch for daylights savings changes in Europe, as well as another public Monday holiday in New Zealand.


Have a brilliant Friday & exceptional wkd up ahead. For those partying it up with the Rugby cup in Japan, enjoy & good luck.



Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.