Republished for the Weekend-Warriors - we check in with AVM's Global Macro CIO, Ashvin Murthy from our Dragon Interviews series
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We originally published this interview on Wed 17 Mar 21, before the Fed meeting that later saw them upgrade their US GDP expectations to +6% - a figure that Ashvin feels could be passed.
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We will have a crypto focused interview that should be published in early Apr.
Post our foundation piece with Global Macro Hedge Fund AVM's Ashvin Murthy in Oct of 2020, we catch up with Ash to get his latest thoughts as we head into a likely series of very key Fed meetings in regards to them being neutral, vs potentially hiking, vs the YCC route.
We touch on a number of things, including:
- Bond yields & real interest rate levels - including context from previous ranges
- Inflation & deflationary forces
- Powell doing a great job at the Fed, letting the market doing the heavy lifting
- Biden administration & the corp. taxes on the way, as a function of funding infra.
- Red hot US economy, all pre the full opening of the country & still with a cold 1Q21 winter, plus with latest +$1.9 trn bill
- Yield curve control (YCC) likely in the pit-stop for a while
- US exceptionalism & the risks to emerging markets, especially the fragile five
- The broader global macro regime that we find ourselves in
Links: AVM Global Opportunity Fund — https://avmglobal.fund/
Watch our debut Dragon Interviews piece here — http://bit.ly/ditvashvin
As always we hope you enjoy the interview as much as we did putting it together, please feel free to share.