Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AUDUSD and NZDUSD forming sideways corrective patterns. Are they reversal or continuation patterns? AUDNZD bouncing in a rising wedge pattern. Will it continue or resume bearish trend?
AUDUSD seems to be forming and Ascending triangle corrective pattern. Resistance at around 0.69. RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating break out is likely to the upside with potential to 0.71
If AUDUSD instead breaks below the short-term rising trendline in the Ascending triangle key support is at around 0.6630. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at 0.6446.
NZDUSD seems to be forming a Descending triangle like pattern. If NZDUSD closes below 0.6155 a sell-off down to around 0.60 is likely. The divergence on RSI indicates that is the likely direction.
However, if NZSUSD manages to break the short-term upper falling trendline and closes above 0.6375 a move above December peak to 0.6635 - 0.6775 is in the cards.
AUDNZD is trading in a rising wedge like pattern testing 0.382 retracement of the September to December downtrend. There is still room up to strong resistance around 1.00 where both 100 and 200 daily SMA’s will provide resistance. RSI above 60 indicates furht4er short- term upside.
If AUDNZD breaks below its steep rising trendline the down trend could resume with support at around 1.06. If that level is taken out December trough is likely to be tested.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy