Head of FX Strategy
Summary: Silver is grabbing our attention with a massive extension higher after a break to a new high yesterday. Gold looking to post a new short term high today as well. The recent USD breakdown not following through in some of the major USD pairs, though some EM currencies looking at fresh highs versus the greenback today.
The FX Breakout Monitor is back, and it is expanded with "autosignals" that show examples of how to trade new breakouts, defined as new 19-day high or low closes not preceded by a breakout in the same direction in the prior week. Click on the link below for a look at the full PDF of the table overview and the Recent New Breakouts tables. See further below for a couple of chart highlights related to today's monitor.
Today’s Breakout monitor
The recent USD breaks lower versus everything from the EUR and GBP to SEK and NZD has faced a few days of consolidation, muddling the outlook there, but EM currencies remain on the bid with the ruble attempting a new break higher today versus the US dollar despite a larger than expected Russian Central Bank rate cut today that erodes carry for RUB longs.
But it is really in the precious metals department that we are seeing impressive moves with silver (more below) beating gold to the punch in breaking higher versus the USD yesterday, though gold looks to post a new 19-day high today if it holds above 1506 on the close.
Elsewhere, AUDNZD traders were in for whiplash as Wednesday’s new low daily close was quickly rejected today (note that the break failed to clear the range on that one), while EURCHF traders are eyeing the 1.1050 area probably more than the nominal high close for the cycle at 1.1025 for upside break prospects from here. And NOK is so weak that it is actually on the verge of breaking lower versus the mixed US dollar.
Today’s Breakout Highlight: XAGUSD
Often, when silver goes, it goes all at once, as yesterday’s break above the recent range and to a new 19-day high has unleashed a tremendous follow through in today’s trading. The high daily close for the cycle is the next major objective up near 19.60.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
