Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Gold could experience a correction down to 2,281 maybe even 2,230 before uptrend is likely to continue
Gold (XAUUSD) has experienced a significant upward trend over the past eight weeks, with only a minor correction observed in mid-March. Yesterday, a Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged on both spot (XAUUSD) and the futures, strongly indicating a top adn reversal.
A correction could lead Gold to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,281 from the March bullish movement (blue Fibonacci levels).
However, a larger correction to the 0.618 retracement at $2,230 is possible, aligning closely with the 0.382 retracement of the broader uptrend since February's lows at $2,220, and stronger support level at $2,222.
Should Gold surpass its all-time high of around $2,365, this would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend.
The lack of RSI divergence (as RSI values are increasing alongside price) on both daily and weekly charts suggests that the current uptrend in Gold prices might not be over, If Gold exceeds yesterday's peak, it could aim for $2,450