Morning Brew November 9 2026

Good morning.

U.S. futures are firmer and Asian equities are recovering this morning after Friday’s technology rebound, but the broader backdrop remains volatile as stronger U.S. employment data revive Fed tightening expectations, AI valuations remain under scrutiny and geopolitical developments stay firmly on the radar.

Tech Bounces, but the Week Still Hurts

Technology stocks staged a broad rebound on Friday after their sharpest setback in more than a year, although the Nasdaq still recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline as investors continued to reassess the AI trade.

The S&P 500 gained 0.32% to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1% to 24,579.43, while the Dow slipped 0.46% to 51,285.73. The recovery was led by technology: the semiconductor index jumped 4.2%, with Nvidia +2.8%, AMD +11% and Sandisk almost +4%. Tesla recovered 4.2%.

The bounce did not repair the damage from the week. The Nasdaq lost 3.37%, the S&P 500 fell 2.68% — its largest weekly percentage decline since the week ended April 4, 2025 — and the Dow declined 0.94%. The Nasdaq has now fallen into correction territory, more than 10% below its peak from a month ago.

Friday’s rebound was broad within technology, but other sectors were less enthusiastic: information technology led the S&P 500 higher while consumer staples and healthcare lagged. Energy had an especially difficult week, with the S&P 500 energy sector falling roughly 12%, its worst weekly performance since April 2025, alongside sharply weaker oil prices.

Among individual stocks, Airbnb jumped 12% after raising its full-year 2026 revenue-growth forecast, while Atlassian dropped 16% following its quarterly results.

One interesting part of the AI debate remains copper: despite the recent correction in AI-related equities, copper futures remain above their 200-day moving average and September lows. In other words, the equity market has become considerably more sceptical, while one important physical input into data-centre construction has not shown the same degree of weakness.

Current U.S. futures are pointing higher: S&P 500 futures +0.47%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.33%, Dow futures +0.71% and Russell 2000 futures +0.78%.

Friday’s U.S. employment report shifts the rate outlook Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, more than twice economists’ expectations, while unemployment fell to 4.1%.

The stronger labour-market data reinforced the argument that the U.S. economy remains resilient enough for the Federal Reserve to tighten policy again. Market pricing for at least a 25bp Fed increase in December rose to around 80%, up from roughly 70% before the employment report.

Fed Speakers reinforced that message. New York Fed President John Williams described U.S. economic growth as remarkably resilient despite repeated shocks while stressing that inflation remains too high and needs to return to the Fed’s 2% objective.

That puts Tomorrow`s  CPI report firmly at the centre of this week’s macro calendar: after Friday’s strong employment numbers, inflation data now provide the next major piece of evidence for markets assessing the December Fed meeting. Europe

European equities finished Friday broadly lower: DAX −1.92%, SMI −1.14%, FTSE 100 −1.01% and CAC 40 −0.81%. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost around 1%, with autos and consumer-related sectors among the weaker areas.

The European session therefore starts with a somewhat different setup from U.S. technology: Wall Street managed a late-week rebound, while European markets closed near the weaker end of the global risk picture.

Asia

Asian equities are recovering this morning after Friday’s technology-led sell-off. The Nikkei 225 is up around 2.7%, while the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite and Kospi are modestly higher.

China’s latest inflation data were mixed: October CPI slowed to 0.7% year-on-year, while producer-price inflation accelerated to 5.7%. Semiconductor and AI-related shares have nevertheless participated in Monday’s regional rebound. AI the Market Had Been “Pricing Perfection”

UBS Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said Monday that the sharp correction in AI-related equities over recent weeks had been” priced for perfection”. He pointed to both the U.S. midterm-election outcome and the broader debate around the scale and timing of infrastructure investment as factors that could delay the delivery of some anticipated AI benefits.

That fits neatly with Friday’s market action: investors were willing to buy semiconductors aggressively after the sell-off, but the Nasdaq’s fourth consecutive weekly decline shows that enthusiasm for AI is now being accompanied by considerably more valuation discipline.

FX, Metals, Crypto & Oil

The Dollar Index is around 102.0, with EURUSD near 1.1160, USDJPY 158.2, GBPUSD 1.338 and USDCHF around 0.820. The latest available EURCHF reference is around 0.914.

Gold is around $4,130 and silver around $52.9 on the nearest liquid futures references.

Bitcoin trades around $75,400 and Ethereum around $2,150.

Oil remains volatile but slightly softer, with WTI around $91 and Brent around $98. Prices have fallen a7% over the past week as some of the geopolitical risk premium has eased, although developments involving Iran and shipping routes in the Gulf remain important for energy markets.

G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris on Monday, giving Washington’s allies their first significant opportunity to assess whether President Donald Trump’s midterm-election defeat changes the administration’s approach toward Ukraine, the Middle East and relations with traditional U.S. partners.

Diplomats expect the Democratic gains to constrain some of the White House’s room for manoeuvre, although foreign policy remains largely under presidential control.

Elsewhere, Iran and Gulf shipping remain important for energy markets, while Ukraine-related energy infrastructure developments continue to affect the geopolitical risk backdrop.

Saxo Insights

FX Trader: The latest FX Trader article provides a useful overview of the major currency themes currently driving the dollar and key crosses, particularly as markets reassess the Fed outlook following stronger U.S. labour-market data.

Commodities Weekly: Saxo’s latest Commodities Weekly reviews the major moves across energy, precious metals and industrial commodities, with oil volatility, gold and the broader commodity implications of changing macro and geopolitical conditions among the key themes.

Today’s Focus

The market starts Monday balancing a rebound in AI equities against sharply higher December Fed-hike expectations, with the G7 meeting, U.S. Treasury supply and tomorrow’s CPI report providing the next scheduled tests.

 Monday, 9 November 2026

Macro: China CPI and PPI; U.S. wholesale trade; Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey.
Central banks: Speech by Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England.
Corporate earnings: Constellation Energy, KKR, Barrick Mining, Occidental Petroleum, Ferguson, Take-Two Interactive, NRG Energy and The Trade Desk.

Tuesday, 10 November 2026

Macro: U.S. CPI and core CPI; U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism.
Central banks: Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations.
Corporate earnings: Petrobras, TransDigm, Sea Limited, Vodafone, Alcon and Ecopetrol.

Wednesday, 11 November 2026

Macro: Final German CPI/HICP. Veterans Day in the U.S., with banks and the bond market closed while U.S. equity exchanges remain open.
Corporate earnings: Cisco Systems, Franco-Nevada, CGI, Ascendis Pharma and Tetra Tech.

Thursday, 12 November 2026

Macro: UK preliminary Q3 GDP; New Zealand Q4 inflation expectations; U.S. initial jobless claims and existing-home sales; Canada building permits.
Corporate earnings: Applied Materials, Ross Stores and Williams-Sonoma.

Friday, 13 November 2026

Macro: U.S. PPI and core PPI; UK Q3 business investment; Swiss producer and import prices; euro-area national GDP and inflation releases; Canada manufacturing sales.