Morning Brew September 9 2026

Good morning.

Middle East escalation, renewed U.S  trade tensions and surging oil prices are setting a cautious tone this morning.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it fired ballistic missiles at a U.S.-used military base in Jordan and attacked ten ships on Wednesday. The action followed U.S. claims that it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, marking a sharp escalation in the six-month conflict.

The renewed attacks have ended a month of relative calm and again put military, shipping and energy infrastructure at risk. Oil reacted immediately: Brent rose 1.4% to USD 99.33 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to USD 94.34.

Trade tensions are also returning to the foreground.

The United States banned a range of  Canadian Exports to the US such as  alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products from September 29

The Trump administration criticised Ford’s partnerships with Chinese companies, arguing that they raise national-security concerns.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy urged Ford to reconsider its relationships with battery maker CATL and automakers Geely and BYD.

Wall Street moved lower as higher oil revived inflation and rate concerns. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% for a second consecutive decline, the Dow lost 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%. Healthcare was the weakest sector, with Amgen posting its largest one-day drop since 2000. Semiconductors bucked the trend, rising 1.3%, while optical-networking names rallied after Verizon signed a multi-billion-dollar fibre-supply agreement with Corning.

Qualcomm said Amazon could buy up to USD 60 billion of its artificial-intelligence data-centre chips and related products under a long-term partnership.

The agreement includes warrants worth roughly USD 4 billion that vest alongside product purchases, underlining how closely financing and procurement are becoming intertwined in the artificial-intelligence investment cycle.

Europe was also subdued. The Stoxx 600 closed marginally lower, with healthcare down 2.3%. Novartis fell as much as 11%—its worst session on record—after its del-desiran treatment failed a late-stage trial, marking a third setback in one week. The SMI lost 1.6% due to the 16% weight of Novartis. The DAX was little changed and the FTSE 100 edged lower. Basic resources outperformed as copper reached another record high. In Asia, the Nikkei and Kospi traded firmer as renewed artificial-intelligence enthusiasm outweighed geopolitical concerns. RBC issued a price target of CHF 120 for Novartis, there could be some volatility in the stock again today.

China’s inflation data were stronger than expected, but the underlying picture remains uneven. Factory-gate inflation accelerated in August and consumer-price growth picked up, largely because of higher energy costs linked to Middle East supply risks. Producer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year, accelerating from 3.5% in July and exceeding the 3.6% consensus forecast.

Rates and currencies remain sensitive. The U.S. 10-year yield is near 4.8%, the USD Index is little changed around 98.75, EUR/USD trades near 1.1630, GBP/USD around 1.3545 and USD/JPY near 153.46. Gold is around 4,380 and silver near 66.25, both supported by funding and geopolitical concerns. Bitcoin is 79k.

The yen remains the most interesting currency. A broader unwind of yen-funded carry trades could have major implications for global liquidity and the Swiss franc, which may increasingly be used as an alternative funding currency.

Cross-border yen borrowing—a proxy for the carry trade—has reached a record JPY 360 trillion, or roughly USD 2.35 trillion, according to a Jefferies analysis of Bank for International Settlements data. This is the largest build-up of the past three decades.

The Bank of Japan is trying to strengthen the yen without destabilising the U.S. Treasury market through asset sales or raising domestic rates so aggressively that carry trades unwind disorderly. Expect potentially erratic moves.

Today’s focus: Middle East headlines and any renewed trade measures from the Trump administration are likely to go to folding screens, cameras, thinner devices and artificial intelligence.

Wednesday, 9 September 2026

Macro: China CPI and PPI.

Thursday, 10 September 2026
Macro: Germany final CPI; U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: ECB rate decision and press conference.
Corporate earnings: Oracle. Adobe