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Morning BrewSeptember 20 20203
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Fasten your Seatbelt
Good Morning
The Chinese Central Bank left the 1 and 5 year rates unchanged going in to the central bank frensy the next 48 or so hours. Last one up is the Bank of Japan which does not announce a time of the rate decision, usually we would expect it early Friday morning.
Fear of a higher for longer message by Jerome Powell tonight have caused yields to rise since yesterday and this has weighed on risk sentiment and equities gave up a little ground. Cause was a higher than expected Canadian CPI Print, Gold and Silver retreated of yesterdays intraday highs and are at 1931 and 23.20. The USD Index is not moving significantly and is trading at 105.15.
EURUSD is holding below the 1.07 and USDJPY remains on course for the next BoJ intervention – this could be Friday but the BoJ is good for surprises. UK Inflation was reported lower than feared this morning at 6.7% vs 7% expected, sending the GBP loser, temporarily more than 50 pips.
US Indexes gave up a little ground yesterday but to be honest the volatility remains too subdued for the news-heavy environment.
China is looking to stimulate the economy with a number of measures, our Redmond Wong summarized them here
The Instacart IPO was quite successful with the shares gaining 12%.
There is no solution ready in the negotiations for the US Debt ceiling, that will be a key topic for the next few days until a resolution is found.
Please find a list of the next Central Bank decisions and the expected outcomes. A more in depth analysis for Fed tonight and the BoE tomorrow is available from our Charu Chanana
Today 20:00: US Fed: 99% no action
Today 20:30 Powells Press conference
Today 23:00 Banco Do Brasil 97% for a 50 bps Cut
Thursday 9:30 Swiss National Bank 64% for a 25 BPS Hike Followed by News conference
Thursday 9:30 Riksbank Sweden 92% of a 25 BPS Hike
Thursday 10:00 Norges Central Bank 99% for 25 BPS Hike, Followed by News conference
Thursday 13:00 Bank of England 82% for 25 BPD Hike & Minutes of the Meeting
Thursday 13:00 Bank of Turkey 70% 350 BPS Hike
Friday : Bank Of Japan 97% no change
Remain nimble until the weekend and consider your risk levels – we have just seen in the GBP, traders are nervous and markets likely to move sharply on any surprises. Consider options for opportunistic positions to manage risks.
Key Events ahead:
Wednesday
- Data: UK CPI, US FOMC Rate decision & press conference
Thursday
- Data Australia GDP. Swiss Sweden, Norway, UK and Turkey rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Home Sales,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI
Erik