Morning Brew October 8 2026

Good morning.

Oil and shipping — Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months after tanker attacks reached their highest level since the start of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran. Before the conflict began on 28 February, around 125 large commercial vessels crossed the strait each day. On Tuesday, only seven commodity vessels made the passage, according to Kpler. Oil is up around 1%.

Federal Reserve — The minutes offered few new insights. The rate increase was unanimous, but the path from here is less clear. Several policymakers viewed the move as necessary to contain the inflationary impact of energy and other supply shocks, while a more hawkish group saw it as protection against emerging demand-driven inflation.

Markets now assign only a 20% probability to an October hike, although rates are still expected to finish the year 25 basis points higher.

Yields — Yields are little changed, with the U.S. 10-year at 5.38%, the UK at 5.44%, France at 4.86%, Germany at 3.48%, Japan at 3.08% and Switzerland at 0.52%. The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 19 basis points to 7.49% in the week ended 2 October, its highest level since November 2023 and the seventh consecutive weekly increase. Mortgage applications fell 4.2%, with purchases down 2.1% and refinancing down 7.5%. The U.S. 10-year yield reached an intraday high of 5.365%, the highest since April 2002, before easing to around 5.28% after a strong USD 39 billion auction cleared at 5.30%, 1.7 basis points through the when-issued level. The 30-year yield touched 5.73%, also a 24-year high.

Equities — The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,801.77 on Wednesday, ending a four-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 also lost 0.2%, while the Dow fell 0.7% to 51,179.87. Industrials led the decline, with Caterpillar down 5.8%, while Nvidia slipped 0.7%. Broadcom is arranging USD 50 billion in financing for a chip it is developing with OpenAI. After hours, Wolfspeed surged 27% after securing a conditional USD 1.5 billion loan commitment. European equities sold off sharply as banks weakened and French fiscal concerns intensified. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.5% to 6,180.29, its largest one-day decline since 1 October, while the Stoxx Europe 600 lost 1%. The Euro Stoxx Banks index dropped 3.4%, with HSBC down 4.4%, Prudential 4.7%, and Société Générale and Deutsche Bank more than 5%. The FTSE 100 lost 0.8% to 10,458.50. Pennon Group fell 20.1% to a 52-week low. The SMI bucked the trend, gaining 0.1% as Roche rose 2.9%.

Samsung — Samsung Electronics expects quarterly operating profit to exceed KRW 100 trillion for the first time in the technology sector, forecasting a nearly ninefold increase in third-quarter earnings as strong AI-chip demand lifts memory sales.

The world’s largest memory-chip maker estimates operating profit of KRW 107.4 trillion, or USD 80.17 billion, for the July–September period, slightly above the LSEG SmartEstimate of KRW 106.1 trillion.

FX — The USD Index is steady at 102.25 after gaining 0.3% on Wednesday and remains close to its strongest level since April 2025. Sterling reached a 16-month high against the euro as French fiscal concerns continued to weigh on the single currency, although the pound weakened against a broadly firmer dollar.

Market levels — EUR/USD is at 1.1205, GBP/USD at 1.3210, USD/JPY at 158.20, USD/CHF at 0.8330, EUR/CHF at 0.9330 and EUR/GBP at 0.8485.

Commodities and crypto — Gold and silver are lower at 4,130 and 60. Gold held the 4,100 level into last night’s close, a positive technical signal, but precious metals and digital assets are likely to remain under pressure if yields continue to rise. Bitcoin is trading near 83,000 and Ethereum at 2,667.

Nord Stream — Russian and U.S. officials have discussed bringing American investors into the Nord Stream pipelines as part of broader post-war economic cooperation. A deal could give U.S. investors a stake in renewed Russian gas flows to Europe, but the obstacles are substantial: the pipelines remain sanctioned, Germany and several European governments oppose reopening them, and ownership is divided between Gazprom and European energy companies. U.S. officials therefore see a restart as unlikely in the medium term. Related talks reportedly also cover the possible sale of Lukoil’s international assets.

Today’s focus — The calendar remains light ahead of next week’s earnings-season kickoff and the CPI release. Bond yields and developments in the Middle East remain the main sources of upside and downside risk.

Thursday, 8 October 2026
Macro: Germany trade balance; U.S. initial jobless claims.
Corporate earnings: PepsiCo.

Friday, 9 October 2026
Macro: U.S. preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Canada employment report; U.S. WASDE report.
Corporate earnings: Delta Air Lines.