Morning BrewOctober 28 2025

Good Morning,

Wall Street's leading indexes reached record closing highs for the second consecutive day, with the Dow rising by 0.7%, the S&P 500 by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq by 1.9%. The Germany 40 is currently trading at 24,280. The VIX has decreased to a one-month low amid average trading volumes. Nvidia provided a significant uplift to the S&P 500, gaining 2.8%, even as Qualcomm surged 11% following the launch of its new AI data center processors. U.S. listings of Chinese companies experienced amicable trading.

U.S. yields on the 10-year remain just below 4%. The USD Index climbed to 98.60, with EUR/USD at 1.1660, GBP/USD at 1.3355, and USD/JPY at 151.90.

Gold and Silver had another weak day and are now 3940 and 46.50.  Ole commented on the Gold and Silver move: #Gold’s correction continues to gather pace, with support at $3,972 standing in the way of a deeper move potentially extending toward $3,846. The recent price action raises the possibility that the high for the year may already be in place, as a deeper pullback could take time to recover from amid rising trader caution and renewed strength in equities. The reasons for holding gold have not suddenly disappeared — only the question of whether they justified a year-to-date surge of more than 50%. In my view, the next leg higher is more likely a story for 2026, not least considering the latest consolidation period that started back in April lasted four months.

#Silver remains on the defensive as post-Diwali liquidity in the London spot market continues to improve, pushing spot prices back below futures — a normal structure that reflects funding and storage costs. Key support, based on Fibonacci retracement, is seen at $47.40, followed by $45.35

Charu wrote on the Trump / Xi meeting

Trump-Xi trade truce: Potential winners and losers  Markets cheered the Trump–Xi trade truce, which if signed will halt new tariffs and delays China’s rare-earth export controls, offering near-term relief to global supply chains.

• Big names like Apple and Tesla could see temporary sentiment support, while rare-earth miners such as MP Materials and Lynas face renewed pressure.
• This is a tactical pause, not a reset. Core tensions over technology, subsidies, and strategic dominance remain unresolved, keeping policy risk elevated.

• This is a tactical pause, not a reset. Core tensions over technology, subsidies, and strategic dominance remain unresolved, keeping policy risk elevated.

Jacob on Mag 7 earnigns:

Big Tech’s make-or-break week: AI spending meets the moment of truth

• Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Apple report within 48 hours, together representing more than a fifth of the S&P 500.
• Investors are watching whether record AI spending is finally turning into profit rather than just higher capital costs.
• The results will test the strength of cloud demand, ad markets, consumer spending and investor faith in the AI trade.

Headlines: 

Argentina's Index sees a robust rise of nearly 20%, while the Peso strengthens by over 6% following Milei's party's impressive performance in the mid-term elections.

Amazon is set to reduce its corporate workforce by up to 30,000 positions, beginning today.

Eight OPEC+ countries are considering a modest increase in oil production for December during their meeting on Sunday, with Saudi Arabia leading the discussions.

The U.S. has entered into a $1 billion collaboration with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) to build two supercomputers aimed at addressing complex scientific challenges.

On Tuesday, the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations and China enhanced their free trade agreement, incorporating elements related to digital, green economy, and other emerging industries.

Trade safely

Tuesday, Oct 28        U.S. Consumer Confidence (Oct)
PayPal, Booking, Electronic Arts, UPS, Visa, HSBC, JetBlue

Wednesday, Oct 29   Australia CPI  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting - Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Microsoft, Google, Meta, Verizon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Etsy, Kraft Heinz, ADP, Chipotle, Starbucks

Thursday, Oct 30      Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment & CPI EU GDP, U.S. Q3 GDP (Advance) - Eurozone GDP (Q3, advance) - Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sep) - ECB Meeting - Japan Unemployment Rate Bank of Japan Meeting

Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, Cloudflare, Lilly, Merck, Comcast Shell

Friday, Oct 31           EU Inflation, U.S. PCE  - U.S. Chicago PMI (Oct) - Canada GDP (Aug) - Eurozone CPI (Oct, preliminary) - U.K. Nationwide House Prices (Oct)

Exxon, Linde, CBOE