Morning Brew November 3 2025

Good Morning,

As we enter the second month of the US lockdown, there is still no end in sight. Historically, the longest shutdown lasted 35 days under the administration of President Donald Trump. It's noteworthy that voters tend to place more blame on the Republican side during these shutdowns, which may motivate the Trump administration to strive for a resolution.

The ongoing shutdown calls for skepticism towards scheduled US data releases. The uncertainty was evident last Friday with the PCE release being questionable until the last minute. Expect potential cancellations or delays in upcoming data releases.

This Morning, Asian PMI are weak on slow US demand and tariffs. 

In her Big Tech Q&A: What investors are asking after earnings, Charu unpacks what’s really changed beneath the headlines:

• Who’s turning AI demand into cash today — and who’s still investing for tomorrow.
• What rising AI backlogs mean for future earnings.
• How to manage exposure after two years of exceptional gains.

An outlook to the Palantir earnings is a

Market Performance:

Despite many uncertainties, US indexes are showing impressive growth.

• S&P 500 and Dow: Both have marked six consecutive positive months.
• Nasdaq: Leading with seven consecutive positive months.

Year-to-date growth figures:

• S&P 500: Up 16.9%
• Dow: Up 11.8%
• Nasdaq 100: Up 22.9%
• DAX: Up 20.8%
• Nikkei: Up 32.7%
• Swiss SMI: Up 5.8%

Selected stocks::

• Rigetti: Up 190%
• Rheinmetall: Up 176%
• Palantir: Up 165%
• Intel: Up 99.5%

Currency Movements:

• US Dollar: Down 8%
• EUR/USD: Up 11.4%
• GBP/USD: Up 5%
• USD/JPY: Down 2%

Commodity Insights:

• Gold: Up 52%
• Silver: Up 68.4%
• Platinum: Up 73.5%

Cryptocurrency Performance:

• Bitcoin: Up 17%
• Ethereum: Up 15%

Looking Forward:

As we approach the end of the year, attention will remain on tech earnings, with a focus on Nvidia's expected earnings on November 19, as the AI boom continues to drive market sentiment.

Passive investments are providing consistent capital inflows into global equities, bolstering financial markets despite political and tariff-driven uncertainties posing a significant risk to the year-end rally. However, recent diplomatic engagements, like the cordial meeting between President Trump and President Xi, have slightly alleviated these risks.

Middle America, Nigeria, and Ukraine continue to be security concerns. Increasing political dissent in the US is noteworthy, with rising partisanship and growing economic disparity. A meeting between Trump and Putin seems unlikely in the near term.

The continued lockdown is a massive economic and political risk on the one hand, for traders and investors it also means flying blind in economic terms. How high is inflation? How is the labor market doing? It is clear that the fed cannot provide clear guidance without input.

Let's see how these developments shape the remainder of the year.

This week, there is a decent amount of scheduled economic data – most of which is likely to be cancelled – but the Bank of England and Australian rate decisions, International PMI and earnings by key companies will give some insights. The takeover of Metsera is becoming a real battle, Pfizer filed a lawsuit against Metsera and Novo Nordisk.

Trade safely in a newsdriven market!!

Monday, November 3, 2025

• International PMI, US Fed speeches: Waller, Paulson, Musalem
  Biontech, Palantir, Goodyear

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

• Australia Rate Decision
  Uber, Shopify, Spotify, Pfizer, BP, Ferrari, AMD, Supermicro, Beyond Meat, Pinterest,.

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

• DE Industrial Orders
• Global PMI
  Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Robingood, Applovin, Qualcomm, ARM, Snap,

• Thursday, November 6, 2025
  
  Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
  Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting

• Initial Jobless Claims (US weekly)
  AstraZeneca, Warner Bros. Moderna, thetradedesk, Airbnb

Friday, November 7, 2025

• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Preliminary
• China Balance of Trade
  Constellation., Wendy`s,