Morning BrewNovember 20 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Thanksgiving Week - Calm or Volatile?
We have a crazy week behind us and now will have to see how sentiment develops from here.
Friday was fairly calm with oil again the outlier – this time with a gain of 4% driven by speculation OPEC may do more to inflate prices.
Over the weekend key news were:
- a possible cease fire in Gaza
- A crypto friendly has been elected in Argentia, boosting Bitcoin to above 37k. The 53-year-old self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalis won with 56% of the vote.
- Italy and Portugal were upgraded by rating agencies
- Open AI CEO was fired on Friday and there are rumors that he may or may not return – latest Reuters news is a no.
- China left 1 and 5 year rates unchanged.
- Several companies halted their advertising on X with possible fallout for Tesla.
- According to sources, Citibank will announce a severe restructuring today.
This week is fairly light with key data, the Fed Minutes and the Durable Goods orders as well as international PMI and earnings of Nvidia are likely to be key, but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, we could be looking at a slow week – good for contemplating the positioning for the rest of the year and consider the overall trading strategy.
If you would like to increase your Options knowledge, Koen has published a collection of key terminology: From zero to hero: essential guide to options trading terminology
As of right now, the US 10 year yields are trading at 4.46, but the USD Index has fallen to below 104 at 103.72. EURUSD rose to above 1.09, GBPUSD 1.2475 and USDJPY fell to 149.15. Gold and Silver are a little weak due to the possible calming in Gaza and are 23.62 and 1979. Bitcoin is 37200 and ETH 2000. China's yuan leapt to a more than three-month high against the dollar on comments out of the Chinese central bank.
The US500 is holding above 4500 at 4505 a, the US 30 34900 and the US tec 100 NAS 15789. The GER40 remains below the 16000 at 15910. Last week the US big three gained app 2%.
Watch Microsoft for Open AI exposure today, Citi for the possible restructuring and Nvidia ahead of earings.
Peter wrote a preview on the Earnings, Koen a strategy with Options:
Nvidia reports earnings results on Tuesday after the US market close and will be the defining for sentiment not only on AI-related stocks but also the entire US technology sector. While analysts and investors are still bullish on the outlook the news yesterday from Microsoft and Tencent is potentially a warning of lower demand in the medium term. Microsoft is pushing ahead with its own purpose built AI chips expected for delivering already next year and Tencent announced that it had acquired significant inventory of AI chips from Nvidia suggesting that maybe a lot of demand has been frontloaded.Read our option strategist's take on Nvidia Investing with options: Nvidia - 3 long term scenarios
- Data China 1 and 5 Year
- Earnings Niu, Zoom,
- Data: Canada CPI, US Existing Home Sales FED Minutes
- Earnings Kohl`s, Best Buy, Nvidia. HP,
- Data Japan Chain Store Sales, US Durable Goods orders, Initial Jobless claims, University of Michigan Sentiment
- Earnings John Deere,
- Data Germany, France, UK, EU PMI, Turkish Rate Decision, THANKSGIVING
- Data Japan CPI, German GDP, IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US PMI, Black Friday
Physically Settled Futures
KC3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CLZ3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
PAZ3, ZOZ3, CCZ3, CTZ3 will expire 22 Nov at 16:00 GMT
NGZ3 will expire 27 Nov at 16:00 GMT
COFFEENYDEC23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
PALLADIUMDEC23 will expire 21 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COCOANYDEC23, COTTONDEC23 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
NATGASUSDEC23 will expire 24 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT