Morning Brew November 17 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Oil and Baba on the move
Equities were calm yesterday but there was overall lots going on. The big three Indexes closed within only 0.2% but oil fell almost 5% on demand worry and strong supply. Against the old proverb, gold and silver rose against the Dollar to trade at 1982 and 23.77 The strong recovery was part of yesterday`s Market Podcast. The Gold Silver Ratio fell from above 87.50 to 83.40 in just a few days.
Walmart lost 8% on a warning that consumers were cautious in their spending, Cisco cut it`s revenue forecast and lost nearly 10%. Alibaba gave up more than 9% on earnings and news that Jack Ma would be selling shares and the announcement to scrap plans to spin off the cloud business. Intel rose almost 7% on positive Analyst review so a lot going on. In Asia, Alibaba closes at lowest level since 19 November 2022 falling 10% in morning session and volume has been already nearly nine times the 20 day average while option volume more than tripled.
One of the key events of the coming week will be the Nvidia Earnings, please see Peters assessment here: Earnings preview: Is the ’Intel moment’ coming for Nvidia?
Bonds rose yesterday and the 2-year and 10-year yields dropped by 7 basis points to 4.84% and by 10 basis points to 4.44%, respectively, the USD Index is gaining a little strength right now to 104.50. EURUSD is 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2385 and USDJPY 150.60.
One of the important events of the day, UK Retail sales is already out of the way with -.03 against a forecast of +0.3%.
European Inflation is the only other key item on the calendar but it looks like stocks may be busy nevertheless. Check your exposure to Alibaba and any spillover effects on other companies and Commodity traders will reconsider their positions.
Expect sharp moves.
In the night to Monday, China will set 1 and 5 year rates.
- Data UK Retail Sales, EU HICP Final
- Earnings Johnson Controls International, Association Generali, Tokio Marine
Physically Settled Futures
KC3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CLZ3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COFFEENYDEC23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FRA40NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
NETH25NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
NOR25NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
SPAIN35NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
SWE30NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT