Morning Brew November 11 2026

Good morning.

Higher yields, a firmer US dollar, rebounding equities and rising oil and precious metals make for an odd this morning...  October’s US CPI surprised to the upside, briefly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% . Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments have put a possible 50-basis-point December hike firmly into the conversation -  if inflation remains as stubborn as it currently seems

Wall Street finished moderately lower yesterday. The Dow fell 0.30%, the S&P 500 lost 0.38% to 7,521 and the Nasdaq declined 0.74% to 25,066. The relatively contained index losses masked significant moves beneath the surface.

The Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, versus 0.3% expected, while core CPI increased 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly traded above 5% after the release before moving back below that level.

Before the release, Waller said he favoured a 25-basis-point December hike, but another core reading around 0.3% would make him consider 50 basis points. Yesterday’s number delivered exactly that.

Nvidia remains the elephant in the room. The shares fell more than 5% yesterday as scrutiny surrounding Jensen Huang added to pressure from higher rates. The stock is around $168, roughly 30% below its high and close to support at $165. Separately, procurement records reportedly show that a Chinese university linked to the People’s Liberation Army acquired H200 chips despite being on a US export blacklist, adding to the China and export-control concerns.

CoreWeave offered some relief to AI-related shares, gaining around 8% after hours after saying it expects to become profitable on an adjusted basis in the first half of 2028.

This morning’s tone is better, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and European futures up 0.6% the GER40 is up 0.2% at 26500.

Asian technology shares are rebounding despite yesterday’s weakness in Nvidia., South Korea’s Kospi is up 2.3%, reversing early losses, with SK Hynix gaining 5.3% and Samsung rising 2.9%, Taiwan  is up 2.9%, led by a 4.2% gain in TSMC and the Nikkei Japan’s Nikkei has gained 1.3 SoftBank recovered from an initial decline of more than 10% following a surprise quarterly loss and was later trading around flat.

The US Dollar Index is at 102.30, with EUR/USD at 1.1160, GBP/USD at 1.3340, USD/JPY at 158.80 and USD/CHF at 0.8260. The dollar remains firm alongside a US 10-year yield around 4.98%, consistent with the repricing of December Fed expectations.Gold is around $4,060, up 0.7%, while silver is near $53, up 2.8%.

The simultaneous rise in the dollar, yields and precious metals is arguably today’s most interesting cross-asset development.

Crypto is conspicuously absent from the rebound. Bitcoin is around $73,500 and Ethereum near $2,060, both lower over 24 hours in the latest available snapshot.

Oil is rebounding from two-month lows as markets balance hopes of de-escalation in the US–Israel conflict with Iran against continued concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

That matters beyond energy. With US inflation already surprising to the upside, renewed strength in oil keeps the link between inflation, interest rates and geopolitics firmly in focus.

US equity markets remain open today, but Veterans Day leaves a very light US economic calendar and few scheduled macro catalysts.

The next notable releases this week include UK third-quarter GDP tomorrow, followed by US producer prices and the second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP on Friday.

The hot CPI has shifted the conversation from whether the Fed will hike to whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points, yet equities are proving remarkably resilient. With today’s economic calendar virtually empty, the focus remains on the 5% area in US 10-year yields, Nvidia’s support around $165, oil and shipping headlines from the Strait of Hormuz, and broader geopolitical developments.

Wednesday, 11 November 2026

Macro: Final German CPI/HICP. Veterans Day in the U.S., with banks and the bond market closed while U.S. equity exchanges remain open.
Corporate earnings: Cisco Systems, Franco-Nevada, CGI, Ascendis Pharma and Tetra Tech.

Thursday, 12 November 2026

Macro: UK preliminary Q3 GDP; New Zealand Q4 inflation expectations; U.S. initial jobless claims and existing-home sales; Canada building permits.
Corporate earnings: Applied Materials, Ross Stores and Williams-Sonoma.

Friday, 13 November 2026

Macro: U.S. PPI and core PPI; UK Q3 business investment; Swiss producer and import prices; euro-area national GDP and inflation releases; Canada manufacturing sales.