Morning Brew November 10 2026

Good morning.

A broad technology rebound and retreating oil prices have improved the global risk sentiment, but Tuesday’s U.S. CPI, firmer expectations for a December Fed hike, and scrutiny around Nvidia as well as  AI-capex cycle keep traders on edge

U.S. Markets

Wall Street delivered a decent rebound on Monday. The Dow rose 2.15% to 52,389, the S&P 500 gained 2.35% to 7,550, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.74% to 25,253. The S&P recorded its strongest daily percentage rise since April 8, while the Nasdaq posted its best day since July 30.

The recovery was unusually broad rather than another mega cap-only rescue mission. All 11 S&P sectors advanced, with industrials and consumer discretionary gaining more than 3%. Market breadth confirmed the move: NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners by 4.06 to 1, while the Nasdaq ratio was 3.3 to 1. Trading volume reached 18.98 billion shares, slightly above the 20-day average of 18.72 billion.

Semiconductors supplied the horsepower. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 6.9%, recovering part of the previous week’s decline of more than 12%. Broadcom gained 8.8% and AMD surged 13.3%, while Nvidia fell 4.2%, making it the only SOX constituent to finish lower. That split is important: investors appeared willing to re-enter the AI and semiconductor complex, but not to overlook Nvidia-specific governance and geopolitical concerns.

Elsewhere, KKR rose 1.7% after reporting record quarterly profit, while Constellation Energy rallied 10% following a better-than-expected adjusted third-quarter result.

Volatility deflated almost as quickly as it had arrived. The VIX dropped 5.72 points to 19.92, its largest one-day decline since April 14, 2025. New-high data were more mixed beneath the headline rebound: the S&P registered 16 new 52-week highs against three lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 103 highs but 164 lows. In other words, Monday was a powerful relief rally, but some of last week’s damage remains visible below deck.

At approximately 07:08 CET, U.S. futures were extending the move modestly: Dow futures +0.39%, S&P 500 futures +0.22%, and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.07%.liveindex

Fed/CPI

The market’s attention now shifts from Monday’s rebound to Tuesday’s inflation test. October CPI is due at 14:30 CET, with the supplied economist consensus at +0.3% month-on-month for headline CPI and +0.2% for core CPI. The BLS schedule confirms both CPI and real earnings for Tuesday, with U.S. PPI following on Friday.bls

This release is unusual because no year-over-year CPI rates are expected: the October 2025 federal shutdown prevented the collection of the comparison-base data. Traders will therefore have to work primarily with the monthly changes and the available component detail rather than the familiar annual inflation headline.

Friday’s strong October employment report pushed the estimated probability of a December Fed rate hike to roughly 84%, from 74% a week earlier. That places more weight on today’s CPI than would normally be the case after such a large equity rebound. A monthly inflation report is now being assessed against a market that has already moved toward a more hawkish policy assumption.

The 2-year Treasury yield ended Monday around 4.56%, reflecting that repricing, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s message that policy should proceed carefully argues against reading a single release in isolation. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is December 8–9, and there is no Fed decision or FOMC-minutes release within the November 10–16 briefing window.federalreserve

AI/Nvidia

Nvidia remains the conspicuous exception to the semiconductor rebound. Its board has begun examining whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. The shares fell 4.2% on Monday to their lowest closing level since April 7, even as AMD, Broadcom and most of the chip complex rallied sharply.

The immediate issues are governance, information security and leadership concentration rather than demand for Nvidia’s products. No finding has yet established that sensitive company or national-security information was compromised. Nvidia reports earnings next week—currently scheduled for Tuesday, November 17—which will put business momentum, margins, hyperscaler spending and management commentary under the same spotlight.home

The broader AI-financing test begins sooner CoreWeave reports Tuesday after the U.S. close, with its earnings call scheduled for 17:00 ET / 23:00 CET. The numbers and guidance will be closely read for evidence on data-centre utilisation, financing costs and whether rapidly expanding AI infrastructure can translate into durable cash generation. Cisco and Applied Materials follow later in the week, extending the AI-infrastructure examination from compute capacity into networking and semiconductor equipment.coreweave

Europe

European equities joined Monday’s global relief rally. The STOXX 600 rose 1.26% to 656.52, with defence stocks up 4.2% and Euro STOXX banks up 3.1%.

Banks were the main corporate story. Banco BPM surged 10.7% after Credit Agricole proposed combining its Italian subsidiary with Banco BPM. UniCredit gained 6.3% after third-quarter earnings increased 24% year-on-year and management raised its full-year profit target, while Commerzbank added 3.9%.

Among the principal national benchmarks, the DAX closed at 26,267.2, up 1.73%; FTSE 100 at 10,782.9, up 1.02%; and CAC 40 at 8,233.3, up 1.16%. The SMI rose 1.01% to 14,946.15.nasdaqfuturesmarketscreener

The positive tone was carrying into Tuesday: at roughly 07:08 CET, Euro STOXX 50 and DAX futures were both around 0.9% higher, while FTSE futures were approximately 0.1% firmer. Lower oil is providing a cleaner inflation backdrop for European assets, although it simultaneously removes some support from energy earnings.liveindex

Asia

Asian markets extended the risk recovery. The supplied market snapshot showed the KOSPI up around 4%, the Nikkei approximately 2.5%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index roughly 1.5% higher, led by technology and semiconductor shares.

Chinese and Hong Kong markets were more measured. Around 06:00–06:10 CET, the Hang Seng stood near 24,545, up 0.39%, while the Shanghai Composite was near 3,669, up 0.23%, and the CSI 300 around 4,064, up approximately 0.2%.googleinvesting+1

China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion during the first ten months of the year. High-technology exports tied to global AI infrastructure have helped offset weak domestic demand, but the scale of the surplus may increase trade-policy friction with major partners. It also underlines the divergence inside China’s economy: external manufacturing demand remains strong while household-led domestic activity is less convincing.

Copper traded around $6.34 per pound in the early session. The supplied context indicated a firmer Tuesday tone supported by lower oil, the technology rebound and tight Chinese availability, although intraday commodity feeds showed only a small net change at the latest snapshot.nasdaqfutures

FX, Metals, Crypto & Oil

DXY: 101.66 EUR/USD: 1.1226  USD/JPY: 158.01 GBP/USD: 1.3446  USD/CHF: 0.8194 EUR/CHF: 0.9200 Gold: USD 4,129Silver: USD 53.22 Copper: USD 6.34Bitcoin: approximately USD 74,711Ethereum: approximately USD 2,122WTI: USD 86.00 Brent: USD 91.67/ down about 1%  

The dollar weakened on Monday as falling oil reduced near-term inflation concern and encouraged a broader return to risk assets.

Oil remains the most important cross-asset transmission channel. Prices fell more than 5% at one stage on Monday after President Donald Trump indicated that additional U.S. strikes against Iran were unlikely in the immediate term. Brent subsequently traded near its lowest level since early September and remained under pressure Tuesday morning.

The geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared, however. Attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have continued, leaving physical shipping risk elevated even as the perceived probability of new U.S. military action has declined. For markets, that means the oil curve is carrying less immediate escalation premium—but not a clean bill of health

Rates

Monday’s Treasury session produced a twist-flattening, with the 2-year yield near 4.56%, the 10-year around 4.88%, and the 30-year approximately 5.28%. Short maturities reflected the stronger Fed-hike pricing, while the long end benefited more visibly from lower oil and reduced immediate escalation fears. Twist flattening means short-term bond yields rise while long-term yields fall, bringing the two ends of the yield curve closer together. It is a “twist” because they move in opposite directions, rather than the whole curve moving up or down.

The Treasury’s USD 58 billion 3-year auction stopped at 4.627%, tailing the when-issued level by 0.5 basis point. Direct bidders took a record 35.04%, cushioning what was otherwise a slightly soft pricing result.

Today there is another test: Treasury will sell USD 42 billion of 10-year notes at 13:00 ET / 19:00 CET. The official refunding statement also schedules a USD 25 billion 30-year sale for Thursday, with both securities settling on November 16.treasury

Tuesday, 10 November 2026

Macro: U.S. CPI and core CPI; U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism.
Central banks: Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations.
Corporate earnings: On Coreweave, Rigetti. Petrobras, TransDigm, Sea Limited, Vodafone, Alcon and Ecopetrol.

Wednesday, 11 November 2026

Macro: Final German CPI/HICP. Veterans Day in the U.S., with banks and the bond market closed while U.S. equity exchanges remain open.
Corporate earnings: Cisco Systems, Franco-Nevada, CGI, Ascendis Pharma and Tetra Tech.

Thursday, 12 November 2026

Macro: UK preliminary Q3 GDP; New Zealand Q4 inflation expectations; U.S. initial jobless claims and existing-home sales; Canada building permits.
Corporate earnings: Applied Materials, Ross Stores and Williams-Sonoma.

Friday, 13 November 2026

Macro: U.S. PPI and core PPI; UK Q3 business investment; Swiss producer and import prices; euro-area national GDP and inflation releases; Canada manufacturing sales.